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IEA: Demand for peak oil is less than a decade away



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Global demand for oil will peak in the mid-2020s and plateau around 2030, the international energy agency said in its world energy outlook for 201

9.

Until about 2025, the IEA stated, the global oil demand will expand by about 1 percent annually, exceeding 100 million hp and now 105.4 million hp. growth will shrink significantly and demand will reach a plateau of less than 110 million bpd – 106.4 million bpd.

However, the bad news for the oil industry has a silver lining, which, according to the agency, could average $ 90 a barrel in 2030 and $ 103 per barrel in 2040.

Of course, making such a long-term oil price prediction is nothing but speculation given how many factors play into oil prices, but natural depletion and the need for new exploration ation has become highlighted before: in 2016, even before prices started to recover, Wood Mackenzie warned that the world could swing into an oil shortage by 2035. The size of the deficit Wood Mac estimated was 4.5 million bpd – roughly 5 percent of global consumption in 2016 .

Related: Can Russia's Arctic Oil Boom Survive US Sanctions?

Since then, replacement replacement has not improved. According to Rystad Energy, only one of six barrels produced will be replaced in the year to date. This is the lowest reserve replacement rate in 20 years.

If there is a demand for a plateau, this should not be too much of a problem, it seems. According to the IEA, approximately 4 million bd per year in global demand will be erased by the influx of electric vehicles that are worldwide across the world of transport. An additional 9 million bpd will be eliminated by more fuel efficient engines. That should be more than enough to offset potential shortcomings as a result of lower exploration.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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