Published on September 7, 2019 |
by Zachary Shahan
7. September 2019 by Zachary Shahan
We write a lot about Tesla because it pushes, pulls and cripples the automotive industry going forward. It's a wild success story we've never seen in cleantech before. It's a success story we've never really seen in the American auto industry, or at least not for about a century. It is a boon to American manufacturing at a time when that sector has been notoriously struggling. Nevertheless, Tesla is one corner of a major puzzle about electrification of transportation. The challenging question has been, who will follow Tesla's leadership? How big a corner will Tesla actually cover?
Nissan fans might say that Nissan is the world's electrification leader, and still claims the best-selling electric car in history. Fans of the Volkswagen Group can say that the Volkswagen Group (including Porsche, VW, Audi and others) has the most promising plan and potential for electric cars and is about to take the market by storm. The underlying question is how many electric vehicles each of these car manufacturers can sell over the next 5 years.
I am also curious about the Kia, Hyundai and Renault, so they will be included in this thought experiment being analyzed. also in a future article. There are other car manufacturers to consider here – PSA Group, Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Toyota, Honda, and more. However, I do not feel that I have enough of a clue about these car manufacturers to analyze them. Are any of them seriously looking at electrification over the next 5 years? Who knows? Have any of them done any serious work to secure battery supplies over the next 5 years? Who knows? For now, I'll take a look at Volkswagen, Tesla and Nissan, and we'll see where we end up with this trio, and then I'll do the same for Renault, Hyundai and Kia.
Let's assume that Tesla, thanks to Gigafactory 3, will ramp up production (and thus sales) to 442,000 by 2020 (note that it is below the company's goal of 500,000 / year then) . A solid roll-out of Model Y in 2021 would significantly increase production and sales, leading to 742,000 sales in 2021 in my forecast. It grows to 800,000 (magically, such a multiple of 100,000) in 2022, 870,000 in 2023 and 1,000,000 in 2024. To offset this 5-year forecast, I estimate 1,300,000 sales in 2025.
If this is externally accurate, it means that Tesla will sell more or less 5,154,000 from 2020 to 2025. If we throw it together with previous years' sales and an estimate for the second half of 2019, here is a visual overview of how it would look:
Does it look rough?
Maybe. Maybe not. We'll find out.
To make it more comparable to upcoming charts, here's the 2020-2025 forecast by itself:
Of course, the annual forecasts try to take into account the sale of Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X, and upcoming Tesla pickup. However, the bulk of the forecasts weigh on the production and demand of Model 3 and Model Y.
What about the Volkswagen Group, which has had an aggressive electric vehicle marketing campaign for many years and plans to roll out dozens of electric vehicles over the next 5 years? The Volkswagen Group is a little difficult to judge because it has many brands under its umbrella (VW, Audi, Skoda, Porsche, etc.), because some of its leaders have spoken aggressively about electrification while others have done the opposite, and because we have none real insight into how many batteries there are fuses for the coming years. That being said, we have seen some press releases and news of serious efforts in this regard (which we have not seen from any other major car manufacturer initially), and there are reports of fully electric vehicle lines and factories being completed or planned to be completed. for the next couple of years.
As many skeptics will notice, Volkswagen's track record to date with clean EVs has been slim and somewhat slippery. In Europe, it sells a few thousand cars a month, giving or taking, of each VW e-Golf and Audi e-tron. In the United States, the two vehicles have been total about 1,000 units a month.
But what about the coming years? Volkswagen ID.3 is the first potential mass market electric vehicle from Volkswagen, and if it is a real hit, it may be the most popular electric vehicle that is not Tesla from a European or American manufacturer. Volkswagen has said that it expects to sell 30,000 of the launch edition “ID.3 1st” and aims to achieve an annual running rate of 100,000 units by the end of 2020 or 2021. In total, Volkswagen's new global e-mobility site says: “In 2025 , Volkswagen intends to sell at least 1 million electric cars per year. “With a targeted 30 fully electric models on the market. After ID.3 comes ID.CROZZ, a potential mass market electric crossover. This can be a very popular vehicle if the price is right and VW has production capacity. Nevertheless, Volkswagen does not appear to have an aggressive sales plan. Maybe it's just being careful, but if that's the case, I think it's best for me to be careful here too.
Taking all this together and mixing it with some kale and tomatoes, here is a forecast for Volkswagen Group's electric vehicle sales through 2025:
All of this would result in 2,950,000 Volkswagen Group sales over the 5-year period.
Nissan is an interesting animal. As noted at the top, it has the most electric vehicle that has seen the most sales in history – the Nissan LEAF, of course. Early on, when it was clear to the then CEO and chairman Carlos Ghosn that the battery market was too immature to supply Nissan with the battery volume it wanted, the company initially acquired a battery manufacturer and used it to help scale up LEAF production. But at this point, it is generally concluded that Nissan made some major mistakes in designing battery packs, and in recent years Nissan has gotten out of this business and gone on to buy its batteries from major EV battery manufacturers. Although, to this day, LEAF has a weak reputation and negative stigma due to battery problems it has included year after year.
Despite its stumbles, Nissan should see, as well as everyone else, that EV batteries hit a critical crossover at cost-value and that leads to a disruptive, messy transformation in the automotive industry. The time is now to cycle the huge electric wave that is starting to break. Here is a chart I produced earlier this year about Nissan LEAF range development (note that LEAF's price has remained relatively stable during this time):
Nissan should know where this is growing. Nissan should know that LEAF will soon crush the gasoline engines of its size and sporting technology.
That said, what the company seems to have done to Carlos Ghosn (threw him under a big, unfair, diesel bus) doesn't instill confidence. The company's lack of clear plans for EVs and disinterest in releasing another clean electric car since LEAF is not inspirational.
I'm going to go ahead and predict 80,000 Nissan electric sales in 2020, 100,000 in 2021, 150,000 in 2022, 200,000 in 2023, 300,000 in 2024, and 500,000 in 2025. That's 1,330,000 Nissan electric car sales from 2020 -2025.
Are you looking right? Too pessimistic? Too optimistic?
Overall, I think these forecasts are on the conservative side of things. I would not be surprised to see higher sales from each of these companies. That said, battery supplies are a major potential bottleneck. Of course, if battery production does not increase quickly enough, these forecasts may be too optimistic.
If you combine these forecasts, here is an interactive chart that lists the three where you can click between companies on the same scale ( may not display well on your phone ):
Here is another version of the comparison in a single chart:
As I noted at the top, I will publish a forecast for Renault, Hyundai and Kia next time. However, these car manufacturers seem even more difficult to judge. If you have any special insight into any of them, please share it below.
If you want to buy a Tesla and get 1,500 miles for free Supercharging, feel free to use my reference code: https: //ts.la/zachary63404.