قالب وردپرس درنا توس
Home / Business / Hawks try to downplay the chances of QE

Hawks try to downplay the chances of QE



FMario Draghi (C), President of the European Central Bank (ECB) speaks flanked by Luis de Guindos, Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Christine Graeff, Director General of Communications for the Media following a meeting of the ECB's Governing Council of the ECB headquarters on March 7, 2019 in Frankfurt, Germany.

Thomas Lohnes | Getty Images

Two top officials have sought to curb market expectations for an instant quantitative easing (QE) package launched by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Earlier this summer, ECB President Mario Draghi said he was looking at additional alternatives to support the 1

9-member euro economy, which describes one of the opportunities included a new asset purchase program to stimulate lending and boost inflation.

Investors cheered on his witty comments with ECB members such as François Villeroy de Galhau, who stressed that a major bond acquisition program, also known as QE, could come in the coming months if necessary.

But just as investors are giving up the ECB's next meeting on September 12, two hawkish members of the eurozone were central to the bank's decision to inject some reality back into the debate.

"In my opinion, based on today's data, it is far too early for a huge package," board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said in an interview with Market News this week that was published on the ECB's website Friday.

"I am still convinced that the Asset Purchase Program (APP) is the ultimate relationship and should only be used if you are at risk of deflation and the risk of deflation is nowhere to be seen."

Fellow ECB member and Dutch governor Klaas Knot laid their own words with caution. "If deflation risks come back on the agenda, I think the asset purchase program is the appropriate instrument to activate, but there is no need for it in my reading of the inflation outlook right now," he told Bloomberg Thursday. [19659002] But there has only been a muted market response since these comments with European stocks posting gains both Thursday and Friday. Analysts at Rabobank based this on the fact that traders were already aware that there was no unanimity among ECB board members on QE.

They also highlighted in a research note that the reason why the Hawks "state their objections so skillfully is that they know that it is very likely that APP will be restarted immediately."

If implemented, it would be the second time in history that the central bank announces a massive program to push money directly into the eurozone.

Last week, Erik Nielsen, chief financial officer at UniCredit, predicted that QE would be launched in September and could be between EUR 300 and 400 billion ($ 333.07 and $ 444.10 billion) over a nine-month period.

The euro area is still struggling to cope with the low level of inflation and to grow at a significant rate. According to the central bank's latest forecasts, out in June, exchange rate inflation is set to reach 1.3% in 2019 – the ECB's target is "below but close to 2%." In terms of growth, the central bank expects growth to reach 1.2% this year – after growing at a rate of 1.8% in 2018.

Silvia Dall & Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management, said to CNBC via email last week that he would not rule out an open approach from the ECB.

"An ECB official recently made the case for a stronger move; it is likely to be a larger rather than smaller program, say 45 billion euros per month for a year," he said.


Source link