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Business

Goldman Sachs cuts earnings outlook for MSCI China to zero growth




In China, people usually buy apartments before they are finished. Pictured here on June 28, 2022 are unfinished homes in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.

Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for the MSCI China index due to a worsening slowdown in China̵[ads1]7;s property market.

The investment bank cut its earnings outlook for the index to zero growth for the year, down from 4% previously, according to a report published late Thursday.

The analysts also cut their next 12-month MSCI China price target to 81, down from 84. MSCI China tracks more than 700 China stocks listed globally, including Tencent, BYD and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

The index has fallen more than 6% in July alone, as worries about China’s property market added to existing worries about Covid, technology regulation and geopolitics.

The new, reduced target means there is a further 18% upside from the index’s close of 68.81 on Friday, but it also means the index is expected to decline around 3% this year compared to a mild rally.

Pressure on Chinese property

“Housing-led growth” for China’s economy is coming to an end, Henry Chin, head of Asia-Pacific research at CBRE, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

He pointed to an underlying split in the market: housing demand is returning in China’s biggest cities, but oversupply in smaller cities that could take “up to five years” for the market to absorb.

Real estate and related industries account for more than 25% of China’s GDP, according to Moody’s.

Goldman’s real estate team has cut its expectations for new home starts – a year-on-year decline of 33% in the second half of the year versus a previously forecast drop of 25%.

The investment bank’s equity analysts expect state-owned property developers to outperform those not owned by the state. Within Chinese stocks, Goldman favors sectors such as autos, internet retail and semiconductors, but is wary of banking stocks because of their exposure to housing-related loans.

Covid overhang

Earlier this month, Goldman economists cut their GDP forecast for China to 3.3%, down from 4%. The economists cited “all the unresolved issues in Covid and housing as well as the heightened risk in global demand and Chinese exports.”

China reported 0.4% second-quarter GDP growth from a year ago, bringing first-half growth to 2.5% – well below the official full-year target of around 5.5%.

Investments in property fell in the first half of the year by 5.4% from the previous year, worse than the 4% decline in the first five months of the year.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu warned in a report on Friday that “the downturn could be even worse than data suggests” and noted that the real estate sector “deteriorated beyond even our bearish expectations.”

“The outbreak of Omicron and shutdowns from March to May have significantly worsened the situation, as shutdowns have limited the purchasing power of Chinese households and reduced their appetite and ability to buy new homes,” Lu said.

While China’s new Covid cases have risen to several hundred a day, most of the infections have been in the central part of the country rather than the metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai.

Over the weekend, one of the hardest-hit areas, Lanzhou city, said the risk of disease transmission had come under control.



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