Gold and crude oil – Talking Points
- Gold and crude oil prices rise after bleak US data fuel Fed rate cut effort
- All eyes ahead for the September non-farm payroll report and Mr Powell
- XAU / USD may rise while crude oil falls on contrarian trade price signals
Find out what retailers gold buy and sell decisions say about the upcoming price trend!
Commodities Wrap ̵
Both gold and crude oil prices saw unstable trading conditions as disappointing data from the world's largest economy affected markets around the globe. Risk trends began to deteriorate after unemployment demands in the US increased by NOK 219,000 in the last week of September, surpassing the estimate of 215,000 and corresponding measurements from the end of August. Then the S&P 500 dipped further when the ISM non-producing PMI clocked in at the lowest in over three years.
This, in turn, has translated into markets that doubled on bets that the Federal Reserve will come in to save the day with a third cut this year later this month. As a result, the market sentiment returned at the end of the day, and so did sentiment-linked crude oil prices. Meanwhile, anti-fiat gold prices rose as the US dollar plunged with government bond yields. Although precious metal trimmed later.
US Jobs Report and Fed Leader Jerome Powell Eyed
Bearing in mind and the recent focus on US economic data amid the trade war uncertainty all eyes on goods are in the coming non- farm report. Economists expect the country to add 145,000 jobs in September as unemployment holds 3.7 percent. Outcomes in line with deterioration of local data of late can provide additional fuel for financial relief.
Then later in the session we will get comments from Fed leader Jerome Powell. Softer data may push the central bank to consider further cuts to sustain growth with policy makers divided by further reductions in the benchmark lending rates . Otherwise, disappointment with rising dovish efforts could send gold and crude oil prices lower.
Learn more about what NFPs are and how to trade in t!
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold prices continue to invalidate the layout for head and shoulders after precious metal could not break the key support (1480 – 1485). This has left XAU / USD facing what could be a potentially declining trend line – the blue line on the chart below. We can see gold climbing higher in the middle of bullish contrarian trading position signals from IG Client Sentiment .
XAU / USD Daily Chart
<img class = "dfx-lazyload gsstx" itemprop = "image" data-image-original-width = "680" data-image-original-height = "352" alt = "Gold prices can rally on NFPs as crude oil declines on longer games  Map created using TradingView
Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Meanwhile, crude oil prices are entering the upper limit for critical support, which is an area between 52.08 – 50.41 This follows a prolonged downturn since mid-September after finding a peak of just under 63.32. Bearish-contrast crude oil signals suggest that the commodity may continue to sink deeper into the support. the limit at 50.41 is taken out, it can open to try 49.13.
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Daily Diagra m for crude oil
Chart created using TradingView
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— Posted by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com  To contact Daniel, use the comment box below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter