GDP for December and the whole year 2021

BEIJING – China’s economy grew by 8.1[ads1]% in 2021, and industrial production rose steadily through the end of the year, offsetting a drop in retail sales, according to official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday.

GDP in the fourth quarter rose by 4% from a year ago, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. This is faster than the 3.6% increase estimated by a Reuters poll. For the full year, Chinese economists expected an average growth of 8.4% in 2021, according to financial data provider Wind Information.

Industrial production rose by 4.3% in December from a year ago, the agency said, also beating Reuters’ forecast of 3.6% growth.

However, retail sales fell short of expectations and grew by 1.7% in December from a year ago. Analysts asked by Reuters had predicted an increase of 3.7 percent.

“We need to be aware that the external environment is more complex and uncertain, and the domestic economy is under triple pressure from demand contraction, supply shock and weakened expectations,” the agency said in a statement.

Capital expenditures for 2021 grew by 4.9%, topping expectations of 4.8% growth.

Urban unemployment in December corresponded to the average for the year of 5.1%. Unemployment for those aged 16 to 24 remained much higher at 14.3%.

China’s zero-Covid policy aimed at controlling the pandemic led to renewed travel restrictions in the country – including the closure of Xi’an city in central China in late December.

In January, other cities were also locked down in whole or in part to control pockets of outbreaks related to the highly transferable omicron variant. Analysts have begun to question whether the benefits of China’s zero-Covid strategy outweigh the costs, given how contagious and potentially less deadly the omicron variant is.

Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2020 based on expectations that the zero-Covid policy will lead to increased restrictions on business activity. However, analysts said the biggest impact would be on consumption.

Retail sales fell in 2020 even as China’s overall economy grew amid the pandemic. Consumption consumption has since remained weak, partly because travel restrictions have dampened tourism.

Business employees’ incomes generally increased between 2020 and 2021, especially in labor-intensive industries such as catering and manufacturing, said Christine Peng, head of the consumer sector in Greater China at UBS, during a media interview last week.

But she noted that growing uncertainty has led consumers to postpone the purchase of discretionary goods, such as new air conditioners. Peng said that consumers also thought in the longer term, and that female consumers in households were more willing to buy insurance or other financial management products.

China’s gross domestic product grew by 2.2% in 2020 from the previous year. This is according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, which in December published an annual data revision that reduced GDP growth in 2020 by 0.1 percentage points.

Compared to the first release earlier in 2021, real estate, transport and accommodation and restaurants saw the biggest downgrade. Rental, leasing and business services had the largest increase, followed by industry.

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