Over the next 20 years, what will be the most unexpected transformative technology?
It's a question that has been asked me more than once recently, and my counterintuitive answer is the car – and I'm not referring to self-driving cars. Often innovation comes mostly into basic, often used services, where valuation is already well established. So the car has a clear advantage over a Mars colony, say or a hyperloop.
The car experience has already improved in recent years, mostly through the trip, making it possible for new trips or helping people get to work or talk on the phone when they would otherwise have driven.
Ride-sharing has been the biggest technological promise to my standard of living since my smartphone, and the service benefits both drivers and non-drivers. It is not surprising that two of this year's most published IPO are Uber and Lyft, with Uber having a potential valuation of $ 90 billion.
And many have not even started using riddeling, so there is plenty of room for the market to grow.
As the main principle, large introductory innovations lead to subsequent innovations. For example, equestrian sport already replaces some forms of public transport. Ride sharing will help keep transport services available where there are no bus or train lines, even for elderly people who no longer feel comfortable driving.
Room for improvement
Another reality of modern car is that Tesla has managed to reassess the entire design. The dashboard and interior are reconfigured, the drive is electric, the software is far more prominent and integrated into the design, speech recognition drives many systems, and there are also self-propelled features. Whether you think Tesla as a company will succeed, the design work has shown how much space it is for improvement.
You can oppose that the cars have many negative properties ̵
Cars also create traffic load, but overload prices can ease This problem is significant, as it already has in Singapore. As for the construction of new highways, transport analyst Robert W. Poole argues Jr. In its new book, there is plenty of room for the private customs convention model sector to grow, leading to more roads and easier commuting.
In other words, the two biggest problems with cars – pollution and traffic load – have gone from "impossible to solve" in the process of dealing.
There is also the issue of security, as car crashes are a major cause of death. But software can help with automatic braking, threat detection, and monitoring whether drivers are full or stoned. Crashing systems can become safer yet. In the case of pedestrian deaths, smartphones may be improved to detect and warn against conflicting vehicle threats, or improvements may occur on the vehicle side.
And if fully self-propelled vehicles train on a large scale, with Wi-Fi and napping in the back seat, the car will be even better. Meanwhile, the spread of podcasts has made driving much more fun.
Currently, the vehicle is widely owned despite having quite heavy price tags and demanding hours. The basic infrastructures and legal frameworks are already in place. So, despite today's obsessions with robots and gene editing, it should be clear that the biggest material changes from technology in the next 20 years are likely to come in a relatively secular life-area – namely, road-life.