WASHINGTON (AP) – Forget Robert Mueller.
The biggest threat to President Donald Trump's re-election, may not be so many surveys that come into his Oval Office, but a possible economic downturn. And the president knows that.
Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped Monday, the last dipping in roller coaster markets in the midst of the trump of Trump's trade war, rising interest rates and concerns for a slow global economy.
Trump, which has tied its political assets to the stock market in an unprecedented way, has nervously seen Wall Street, watching cable TV tickers and barking on its assistants for updates. And while he continues to talk about US economic power, he has repeatedly reprimanded the public, the President of the Federal Reserve for rate hikes that he feels can slow the economy.
Trump made her feelings clear again Monday, tweeting that "It's amazing that with a very strong dollar and virtually no inflation, the world outside blows up around us, Paris burns and China all the way down, Fed even considers another increase in interest rates. Take victory! "
Through Trump's view, the economy has been strong. And while the president credits his aggressive tax cuts and deregulation work, the gain actually began under President Barack Obama.
Optimism about the economy has cooled something this fall when Trump's trade dispute with China rattled markets.
Fund to quote job statistics and market reports, Trump has appeared highly customized shift. Having undermined much of the global financial system by imposing tariffs, Trump seemed eager to ease anxiety recently and hit a trade violence in China after a dinner meeting at an international summit in Argentina. And when this move only came short confidentiality, Trump put on an unclear bout of tweeting that shouted markets even more.
First Trump declared a "Tariff Man" and promised to inflict as much financial pain as possible ̵
"Not to be heard naively or something, but I think President Xi meant every word of what he said at our long and hopefully historic meeting," Trump Tweeted. "
Shares dropped on Monday when both Dow and S & P 500 are in pace for their worst December performance since 1931 when they were hit during the Great Depression. As investors turned to a forthcoming meeting in the Federal Reserve, its leader, Jerome Powell, has repeatedly been the target of Trump's anger, since Fed has increased interest rates to ensure that the lowest unemployment rate for almost five decades does not start pushing inflation higher. Claiming that price increases hinder economic growth, Trump has openly questioned Powell's leadership.
"I think that Fed makes a mistake. They are so dense. I think the Fed has gone crazy, "said the president in October.
No longer tweeting much about the stock market, Trump has also criticized Powell privately and has told confidently that he understands that a recession would be dangerous to a president who once mumbled Dow hits 30,000. (The journal was 26,828 in October.) Although Trump does not seriously consider making changes to the Fed, he has repeatedly insisted that his business background allows him to understand the economy more than Powell, according to four white housekeepers and outside advisors who were not authorized to discuss private conversations and who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"He believes that his legacy will be the guy who rebuilt and revived the American economy. He is completely focused on it, "said Stephen Moore, a former Trump campaign administrator and visiting colleague at the Heritage Foundation." He understands that if the economy stays strong, he is re-elected. He is completely focused on the economy. He follows the stock market, does not follow stock reports, he follows the job report. "
Democrats who are considering challenging Trump in 2020 have begun to draft their own financial plans. But an elite representative of White House said that Trump remains safe in the economy, referring to low unemployment rates, GDP growth and growth in production , including indicators.
The service, which was not authorized to speak publicly, said that Trump looks at the indicators carefully and regularly informed by Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council, Steven Mnuchin, State Secretary; and Kevin Hassett, Head by the advice of financial advisors.
"The US economy is flourishing," said Kudlow The Associated Press. "While economies around the world are struggling, our economic fundamentals are incredibly strong."
Trump has the right to worry about how An economic downturn could affect the presidency. Bill Clinton aide James Carville's famous mantra in the 1992 presidential campaign was: "It's the economy stupid." And the nation's economist Healthy health is often the key to Presidential re-election opportunities.
The two last presidents who failed to be left-elected, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush, were primarily made by fake economies, said president president Douglas Brinkley.
"It's hard to convince the public to give you another chance if the economy is not going well," said Brinkley, professor at Rice University. He suggested that even voters who do not like Trump's personal behavior "tolerate him because they think he is good for Wall Street and work. If it's an economic downturn, it will have a devastating effect on him."