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Business

Fed officials warn determined inflation poses “significant risk”




Senior Federal Reserve officials now see inflation as a “significant risk” to the US economy and fear that even tighter monetary policy will be needed if inflation rises above their expectations, according to a report from their last meeting.

The minutes of the June meeting, in which the Fed delivered the first rate hike of 0.75 percentage points since 1994, also showed that politicians now support raising interest rates to a point where economic activity is limited, with the possibility that they could become “even more restrictive”[ads1]; if is justified by the data.

“Many participants felt that a significant risk the committee was now facing was that rising inflation could be anchored if the public began to question the committee’s determination to adjust its attitude to policy as justified,” the report said.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, published on Wednesday, showed that the alarm spread through the top ranks of the US Federal Reserve over inflation, which is at an annual rate of 8.6 percent. The account also showed the lengths officials are willing to go to to ensure that prices do not get further out of control.

The Fed will decide whether to raise interest rates by 0.50 percentage points or 0.75 percentage points at its meeting this month, although several officials have indicated their support for the larger increase.

“If inflation becomes entrenched in the consumer and business psyche, it will be much harder to lower it in the medium term,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Oxford Economics. “It simply came to our notice then [the Fed]and they will really do their best to make sure that does not happen. “

She added: “The longer inflation remains high, the more it will be built into expectations.”

The minutes showed that the participants are increasingly aware that their plans to tighten monetary policy will slow down the pace of economic growth. Most noted that the risk to the outlook was “skewed to the downside” given the possibility that further tightening could weigh even more on activity.

The report reiterated recent comments from Fed Chairman Jay Powell, who stressed that the central bank has little room for maneuver when trying to tame inflation without causing widespread job losses.

A US recession is now “absolutely a possibility”, and will largely depend on factors beyond the Fed’s control, he said last month, pointing to the war in Ukraine and long-running Covid blockades in China.

Powell doubled that message last week in a panel of other central bankers, warning that a failure to restore price stability would lead to an even worse outcome for the US economy.

“The process is most likely to involve some pain, but the worst pain would be not to cope with this high inflation and let it persist,” he said.

The report from the June meeting shed further light on why the Fed abruptly decided to dramatically increase the pace at which it tightens monetary policy, and chose to abandon the previously signaled plans for a second subsequent interest rate increase of 0.50 percentage points.

Instead, a 0.75 percentage point increase raised the federal funds rate to a new target range of between 1.50 percent and 1.75 percent.

The decision followed the publication of two economic reports, one showing a large jump in consumer prices in May and the other an increase in inflation expectations.

FT survey: How do you handle higher inflation?

We explore the impact of rising living costs on people around the world and want to hear from readers about what you are doing to combat the costs. Tell us via a short survey.

Participants expressed concern that the previous report indicated that inflationary pressures had not yet eased and “[solidified] the view that inflation would be more persistent than they had previously expected ยป, according to the minutes.

The meeting in June also contained revised forecasts, which indicated that officials envisage that rates will increase to just under 3.5 per cent by year-end. Further interest rate hikes, which push the key interest rate to 3.75 per cent, are expected next year, before reductions in 2024. Officials also cut back on higher unemployment and lower growth in that period.

The minutes described in detail why the Fed scrubbed an important line in its political statement last month, where it had said that it expected inflation to fall back to the target of 2 percent and that the labor market “remains strong” while tightening monetary policy.

“As the further tightening of policy is likely to lead to a certain decline in economic growth and temperance in labor market conditions, members also agreed to remove the previous statement,” the minutes read.



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