Expert: The chances of the US-Iran war are at least 50%

There is at least a 50 percent chance that the rising tension between the US and Iran may escalate into a conflict that will disrupt supplies, Fereidun Fesharaki, a former energy consultant in Iran in the 1970s and now adviser Fakta Global Energy, told CNBC.

Earlier this month, two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, just outside the Straits of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf of Persia with Oman Bay and the open sea. The daily flow of oil through the Hormuz Strait accounts for around 30 percent of all traded crude oil and other liquids. While Iran denied violent involvement in the attacks on the two oil tankers, the Islamic Republic owes it to being behind the attacks.

Days later, Iran shot down an American drone over the Hormuz string and claimed it had broken Iran's airspace. The United States said drone was in international airspace.

The United States had apparently prepared an answer to the abandoned drone with strikes on Iranian targets, before US President Donald Trump stopped a scheduled strike 10 minutes before it began because he said it was "proportional to to shoot down an unmanned drone ".

Had President Trump dealt with these strikes, oil prices would have jumped $ 5 to $ 10 a barrel because of the geopolitical risk premium, Fesharaki told CNBC.

The expert sees a 50 percent or more chance that the United States and Iran will become involved in some kind of conflict, even though it may not be a "full war." Related: Hedge Fund Hold Selloff In Oil As Mid-East Spike

"We must remember that Iran is a regional superpower. The United States says" I'll put you in a box, please and die. "They (Iran) won't be in a box and just die," Fesharaki told CNBC.

"They will strike back somehow; I think the chances of getting bigger are very, very high in the near future," said the expert.

The United States imposed new sanctions on Iran on Monday with "hard-hit" sanctions against Iran's supreme leader.

Iran slammed these sanctions as "outrageous and idiotic", with Iranian media reporting that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said sanctions against Ayatollah were "an unwise movement" and that "The new US measures are the result of their frustration and confusion over Iran. The White House Has Mental Disability. "

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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