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Business

European stocks rise as US futures signal Warning: Markets Wrap




(Bloomberg) — A gauge of global stocks was little changed after the best start to a year in a generation as investors weighed whether the rally has gone too far given the outlook for inflation, growth and earnings. European shares rose.

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The MSCI ACWI index fell for the first time in seven days after posting its biggest first-two-week advance in data dating back to 1988. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes fell at least 0.2% each. The dollar snapped a three-day losing streak. US spot markets were closed for a holiday. Bond yields across Europe rose.

While US inflation appears to have peaked, aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and other central banks risks pushing the global economy into a recession that could hurt corporate profits. The World Bank last week added to the gloomy outlook, warning of “one of the sharpest downturns we have seen in the last five decades”[ads1];.

“The fear of missing out currently represents a key driver for stocks,” Credit Agricole CIB strategists led by Jean-François Paren wrote in a note. “The market is getting a little ahead of itself right now.”

Earnings will be a key catalyst going forward as traders assess whether companies were able to navigate headwinds including higher interest rates. The busy week will also be marked by corporate earnings, including Wall Street heavyweights Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

A number of Fed officials will speak this week, offering more clues for investors. The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting kicks off in Davos, Switzerland, with speakers there including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Kristalina Georgieva of the International Monetary Fund.

Meanwhile, Japanese markets continued to be driven by speculation about a shift in monetary policy, with the Topix index trading lower as the yen’s rise weighed on exporters.

Investors are on the lookout for another surprise from the Bank of Japan when it sets policy on Wednesday. The yen strengthened to levels last seen in May, and Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield pushed above the top of the BOJ’s ceiling for another day.

Bitcoin fell below $21,000 after a rally over the weekend as it rallied amid optimism that it may have bottomed.

Elsewhere in the markets, iron ore fell after China promised to tighten supervision of prices following the metal’s rise in recent months. Oil and gold fell.

Important events this week:

  • Earnings this week are scheduled to include: Charles Schwab, Discover Financial, Goldman Sachs, HDFC Bank, Interactive Brokers, Investor AB, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Prologis, State Street

  • The World Economic Forum starts in Davos on Monday

  • US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday

  • China Retail Sales, Industrial Production, GDP, Tuesday

  • US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Tuesday

  • The Fed’s John Williams will speak on Tuesday

  • Eurozone CPI, Wednesday

  • US Retail, PPI, Industrial Production, Corporate Inventories, MBA Loan Applications, Cross-Border Investments, Wednesday

  • Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Wednesday

  • Federal Reserve publishes Beige Book, Wednesday

  • Fed speakers include Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan and Patrick Harker, Wednesday

  • US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed index, Thursday

  • The ECB explains its policy meeting in December and President Christine Lagarde in a panel in Davos, Thursday

  • Fed speakers include Susan Collins and John Williams, Thursday

  • Japan CPI, Friday

  • China loan prime rates, Friday

  • US existing home sales, Friday

  • The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva and the ECB’s Lagarde will speak in Davos on Friday

Some of the main features of markets:

Stock

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.3% as of 11:47 a.m. London time

  • Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3 percent

  • S&P 500 futures fell 0.2 percent

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell less than 0.1%

  • The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.2 percent

  • The MSCI Emerging Markets index rose 0.1%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rose 0.1 percent

  • The euro was unchanged at $1.0830

  • The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 128.24 per dollar

  • The offshore yuan fell 0.4% to 6.7430 per dollar

  • The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2211

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $20,837.78

  • Ether fell 0.5% to $1,544.76

Bonds

  • The interest rate on 10-year government bonds was little changed at 3.50%

  • Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to 2.18%

  • UK 10-year yields rose three basis points to 3.40%

Raw materials

This story was produced with assistance from Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Tassia Sipahutar and Richard Henderson.

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©2023 Bloomberg LP



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