European economic data is sinking as US data is swimming

Improved US continued to confuse skeptics as the economy appears to continue to surge, saving Wall Street from the accident that hit Asia and especially European stocks yesterday. Actually, it's more of a doggy paddle than a Phelps-like sprint, but it's much better than Davy Jones Locker looks to Europeans, which made gloomy reading for the Eurozone.

There seems to be a constant processing of data now, suggesting that a declining global economy is being exacerbated by the overshoot of the Sino-American trade war. Japan's Jibun Bank Composite PMI, released this morning, slipped to 51.5 from 51.9 previously, and Thailand is expected to show a 3.60% slide.

One bright note, if you can call it that, is that the farm Iowa and Montana last Friday visit of the Chinese trade delegation was actually canceled by the Americans and not the Chinese themselves. The cause is still unknown. Perhaps Mnuchin was worried about the delegates suffering from agoraphobia (fear of open spaces).

For whatever reason, this news may be comforting in that it does not appear to be related to tensions in the negotiating group on both sides.

Indonesia will be on the reader's radar today with student protests outside parliament that continue unabated overnight and this morning. They are protesting against a draconian new criminal law and a weakening of the anti-corruption department's powers. An attempt to pull the gates to Parliament and enter last night was rejected, but protesters remain.

Combined with renewed riots in West Papua and out of control, started illegal fires and dumped smog across most of the region, suggests that all is not well in the corridors of power in Jakarta. Given the dampening effects of Hong Kong protests have had, it is not an unreasonable conclusion to think that the same results can be felt on the local exchange and perhaps.

When returning to Europe, the German release today will be closely monitored by markets following yesterday's dismal PMIs. A downside miss from expected 94.5 pressures could increase the negative pressure on European equities and stocks. The ECB's monetary bazooka appears to have been fired over time.


The, and all finished mostly flat overnight, lifted by the decent US PMI print following an expensive session in Asia and Europe. With Japan returning from vacation, we can expect more activity in Asia today, and early indications are that Asia has taken comfort from Wall Street that keeps the ground overnight.

It is 0.35% higher and is 0.1[ads1]0% higher. Asian stocks should remain cautiously optimistic today as the United States continues to hold its head over the water as the global consumer of last resort. The fact that the Chinese did not cancel yesterday's farm visit last Friday in the US will be a huge relief to regional markets, and the effect of this should not be underestimated by trade today.

Indian stock markets accumulated nearly 10% in the last two sessions of giant cuts in companies and may be reason to take a breath and take some profit later today.


The foreign exchange markets remained silent overnight after the first euro sales following the dismal Eurozone PMI reading. The euro itself is still stuck below 1.1000 at 1.0990 this morning. In front of the German IFO this afternoon; It's hard to see one currency finding many friends. 1.0925 is critical technical support in the short term.

Expect fireworks at (GBP) this afternoon with the UK Supreme Court due to release its ruling on pro-rouging Parliament in this morning's British time. I will not try to guess the court, just note that no matter what the verdict is, there is a high chance of a draw of 100 points anyway. Businesses should probably have light exposure in the decision or deep pockets and a low heart rate. GBP is trading at 1.2430 this morning with technical support of 1.2400.

Asian currencies will find comfort in farm visit news overlooking potato and soybean fields and chicken barrels that probably never carry as much weight in financial markets. The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) may underperform due to political tensions.


Oil traded in a wide range overnight in a noisy session. Falling for European data on global decline fear, only to gather US data and a Reuters report that Saudi Arabia had recovered 75% of its lost production.

It seems the street is taking Saudi Arabia recovery with a large grain of salt though. When the dust settled in New York, both Brent and the day ended with modest gains. rose 0.10% to $ 64.50 barrel and WTI rose 0.30% to $ 58.35 barrel.

However, the closing numbers are an extremely volatile inter-day interval, but with more short-term position notches than a Halloween movie. Asian oil marketers are unlikely to stick their heads over the chest too far today, as they are content to watch events that play out in other time zones instead.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has said on Fox News that the trade talks will resume in two weeks and may provide some support for crude oil on trade hopes.


jumped $ 12 to a high of $ 1526.00 an ounce overnight, before settling around $ 1521.00 when New York ended. It capped another excellent performance for the yellow metal as it benefited from falling bond yields and global economic uncertainty.

The results of gold in recent days are perhaps a microcosm of what we would see if US-China trade talks were to break down irretrievably.

Technical resistance in the $ 1525.00 ounce region held overnight to confirm that gold remains in a broader $ 1480.00 to $ 1525.00 range. From a technical point of view, I would require one, preferably two closes over $ 1525.00 to confirm that a new higher trading area had been set and that we did not enter a beef trap.

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