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Business

Elon Musk’s ‘best’ Twitter offer looks fake




The Elon Musk Twitter drama continues to take sometimes bizarre, unexpected turns, so no matter what I write here, it may become unclear not long after the ink dries.

It has always been dangerous to talk absolutely about Musk. He is said to be smart at the genius level, but he has done some really stupid things (weird tweets got him almost stuck due to libel and caused problems with the Securities and Exchange Commission). His baby, the electric car giant Tesla, was sadly poorly managed, plagued by production problems and almost declared bankrupt. It miraculously survived and came back stronger, making him the richest man in the world.

Recently, he presented a “best and final” offer to an economically unstable, yet ubiquitous social media company Twitter. Price: $ 44 billion or $ 54.20 per share (which included a pot reference; “4:20” is “the time to take” in the grass smoking culture). It was a hefty premium on the share price then and even more hefty now after the market sale.

Twitter’s board eventually realized that Crazy Elon offered a once-in-a-lifetime paycheck to its beleagured investors and took the deal.

Musk was on the verge of buying what he called the world’s public space. He wanted to be the king of all media by taking Twitter privately and fixing its many business mistakes (despite all its influence, it has no cash flow and no earnings).

Until he suddenly was not.

Somewhere along the line, he realized that he was paying too much for a dog with fleas. He put the agreement on hold indefinitely. His hardly credible reason to threaten to leave: There are too many fake accounts on Twitter that he or someone else can not make money on. He also said that Twitter hid this bot problem, which is tantamount to fraud. He wants to take a closer look at the books.

The Twitter logo is seen on a sign at the company's headquarters in San Francisco, California on November 4, 2016.
Elon Musk has said he is concerned about the large number of fake accounts on Twitter.
JOSH EDELSON / AFP via Getty Images

If he was really worried about robots, he would not give up due diligence until he signed the agreement papers.

What’s next? The business press has always been skeptical of Musk’s intentions because most of Wall Street has been skeptical. That is why the stock never traded close to its bid price.

For what it’s worth, here’s the point of view of two bankers, one who has worked with his Tesla board, and another in a company involved in his Twitter financing work.

Only on his terms

They say almost the same thing. Musk tells people he still wants Twitter. He thinks he can make it work as a private company, clean up the fine issue and sell it at a profit once in the next five years.

But Musk wants the company (like everything else) on his terms, which is always changing. He does not read balances, but follows his gut feeling and has no problem failing to break conventional banking standards (ie your word is your bond) to get the prize. The gut feeling asked him to refrain from due diligence. It now tells him that even though he signed a deal that left him hooked on the $ 1 billion breach fee and perhaps more in compensation, he can get Twitter to the table and accept his terms, aka a much lower purchase price.

He may be right. Twitter first said they would enforce the initial terms of the deal, maybe even go to court, but now appears to be playing ball with Musk. It recently said it would provide more data on its bot problem – a move that means talks are underway again. The bankers tell me that the Twitter board knows that it will be difficult to find another suitor, even at around $ 40 per share being traded now. The board can not only accept anything, but also can not tell Musk to just knock sand.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk attends the opening of the Tesla Berlin Brandenburg plant in Gruenheide, Germany, on March 22, 2022.
Elon Musk could lose $ 1 billion if his Twitter deal expires.
Patrick Pleul / Pool Photo via AP, fil

So the thinking among my two boys is that Twitter accepts a lower price, possibly significantly lower, and Crazy Elon gets its public space, albeit too much cheaper.

That means the deal is up and running, right? Looks like this. But no one really knows about Crazy Elon.

Gensler goes wrong

Left-wing SEC chief Gary Gensler finally announced last week that he intended to revise the stock market. Forget the pretty good deal small investors are getting now: zero-commission trading and mobile apps that make stock trading seamless and affordable for beginners.

Gary Gensler, chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), testified at a hearing in the House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services on the proposed budget request to the Federal Trade Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission for the 2023 financial year in Washington, DC, 18. May 2022.
Securities and Exchange Commission Gary Gensler is chasing “meme” stock investors.
Samuel Corum – CNP / MEGA

Gensler told attendees at an investor conference that bad things happen where no one can see it; too many trades do not go to public exchanges. They are directed to private trading places known as dark pools. Investors think they are trading for free on Robinhood, but may be pulled off without knowing it.

Gensler offered no data showing that markets are screwing small investors through their current structure. That’s his idea.

Abolishing the markets a bit is quite a dangerous thing. Especially when you’re just trying to refine your class war information, as most observers suspect. The good news (and bad news for Gensler): His proposed changes are likely to take years to implement as Congress – which is likely to be in GOP hands after November – discusses their benefits.

By that time, it’s all over. His current boss, Sleepy Joe Biden, is likely to be out of office, replaced by a Republican president or a sober Democrat who will resist “fixing” something that does not need to be fixed.



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