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Business

Dow sinks 800 points as trade truce enthusiasm fades




The Dow dropped as much as 805 points, or 3%, on Tuesday. It was recently down about 700 points.

The S & P 500 declined 2.5%, while the Nasdaq tumbled 3%.

Big tech stocks fell sharply. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost more than 3% apiece.
But investors are quickly realizing that the US-China trade war is not over. The tariffs already put in place remain. And new tariffs could be implemented if the two sides failed to make progress.

"People are still very concerned about the trade war," said Dan Suzuki, portfolio strategist at Richard Bernstein Advisors. "Financial markets are increasingly showing signs of fear of a recession."

President Donald Trump did not help Wall Street's trade war worries on Tuesday. Trump said that he would "happily" sign a fair deal with China but also left open the possibility that the talks will fail.

 What the US-China truce means for business

"President Xi and I want this deal to happen, and it probably will, "Trump tweeted. "But if not remember … I am a Tariff Man."

These words are not likely to boost confidence among investors already worried about the negative consequences of the trade war. Steel and aluminum tariffs have lifted raw material costs and caused disarray in supply chains. And uncertainty about trade policy makes it very difficult for companies to make investment decisions.

Investors have also grown very worried in recent days about fluctuations in the bond market. De kloof tussen korte en lange-termijn Treasury-tarieven heeft dit jaar aanzienlijk verkleind. Before almost every recession, the yield curve has inverted, meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term ones.

The gap between the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields dropped on Tuesday to the smallest since just before the Great Recession.

The tightening yield curve reflects fears about a growth slowdown and concerns about whether the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates more quickly than the economy can handle. Fed chief Jerome Powell gave a speech last week that investors interpreted as signaling the central bank could slow its rate hikes.
Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, predicts the Fed will pause its rate hikes because it has already made monetary policy too tight. He pointed to the slowdown in the housing market caused by higher mortgage rates.

"It's playing with fire to be too tight and risk an inversion because you do not know what the outcome will be," Bannister told reporters on Tuesday. "Even if the Fed pauses, they may have already done too much."

A flattening yield curve and slowing economic growth hurt the profitability of banks.

The financial sector was the second-worst performer in the S & P 500 on Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) declined more than 4% apiece.

But Suzuki cautioned that the markets could be overreacting. Han pekte på sterke corporate profits og det faktum at rentekurven ikke har invertert.

"We do not see signs of an impending recession," Suzuki said. "There is a widening gap between market fear of a deterioration in the fundamentals and the actual fundamentals themselves."



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