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Business

Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Rally Passes Inflection Point; Apple, Exxon Flash Buy Signals




Dow Jones futures open Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock rally passed a turning point, which made a decisive step upwards in the last week.




X



Investors should increase their positions with cautious purchases, not rush to increase exposure.

apple (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) made bullish moves on Friday after earnings. Exxon and CVX shares offered early entries above their 50-day lines as they move up on the right side of appropriate bases.

Apple stock became the first megacap to regain the 200-day line, while its relative strength line is already at a new high. With earnings risk off the table, investors could use this as a potentially aggressive buy, perhaps a place to start a position in AAPL stock.

ON stock moved past a trendline entry on Friday, while the RS line is at a new high. That would usually be a buy signal for this leading chip game, although volume has been low. But, All together (ON) earnings are due before Monday’s open, making any new purchases very risky.

China EV manufacturers Nine (NIO), Xpeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) should report July deliveries before Monday’s opening. China EV and battery giant BID (BYDDF) will likely follow a day or two later. All four are increasing capacity and starting deliveries of new models in the coming weeks or months. BYD began sales of the Seal sedan on Friday, and took on Tesla (TSLA) Model 3.

ON Stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20. Exxon was Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day. Apple shares and Chevron are Dow Jones components.

The video embedded in this article looks at Apple, Exxon Mobil and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 PM ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Keep in mind that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Stock market rally

The stock market rise fell to start the week, in the middle of one Walmart (WMT) profit warning and other concerns. But the major indexes rose sharply over the past three days, closing at weekly highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3% in last week’s trading. The S&P 500 index rose 4.3 percent. The Nasdaq composite rose 4.7 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 4.25%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 14 basis points to 2.64%, its lowest since early April and continuing a steep decline from its June 14 peak of 3.48%. The yield curve is inverted from 1-year to 10-year, with even the six-month interest rate (2.89%) well above the 10-year government interest rate.

U.S. crude futures rose 4.1% to $98.62 a barrel last week after topping $101 a barrel at one point on Friday. The oil contract for the first month still fell 6.8% in July.

ETFs

Among the top ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF ( FFTY ) gained 6.1% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF ( BOUT ) gained 4.2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) rose 2.8%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 4.6%.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 10.3% last week, with steel producers in particular rising. The Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 8.5%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rose 2.7%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rose 2.9%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 10.2%, with XOM shares and Chevron two dominant holdings. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 2.9%. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose a relatively subdued 2%

As a result of more speculative stock stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) fell 2.4% last week and the ARK Genomics ETF ( ARKG ) fell 0.3%. Tesla stock remains a large holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs. Ark also owns some BYD shares and Xpeng.


Top five Chinese stocks to watch now


China EV sales

Before Monday’s opening, the Chinese electric car manufacturers Li Auto, Nio and Xpeng will release deliveries in July. There are reports that sales of electric cars and hybrids cooled somewhat in July after new subsidies and the end of shutdowns spurred a big increase in sales last month.

All three are expanding capacity aggressively. Xpeng, which doubled its annual production capacity to 200,000 earlier this year, will reach 400,000 by the end of the year, or 600,000 with double shifts. But the EV maker is reportedly already offering discounts to boost sales. Is it a sign of weaker car prices for China’s EV market in the coming months?

A new EV SUV later this year could boost Xpeng demand. Nio is adding two new models in the third quarter, while Li Auto will begin deliveries of its premium L9 hybrid SUV at the end of August.

All three stocks have retreated significantly since the end of June. LI stock had risen to a 52-week high, so the pullback to the 50-day line looks healthier. In another week, Li Auto will have a new base. Nio stock and Xpeng fell back from their 200-day lines, with XPEV stock decisively below the 50-day line now as well.

Li Auto pared losses to just hold its 50-day line on Friday. Nio and Xpeng turned higher, with Nio stock moving above its 50-day line.

A government council confirmed that electric cars and plug-in hybrids will be exempt from car purchase tax next year, according to reports on Friday.

EV giant BYD is likely to report July sales on Tuesday or Wednesday. BYD continues to rapidly expand its capacity, with a huge expansion in Asia and Europe about to start. The BYD seal went on sale on Friday, with deliveries due to start in August. It’s the first clear case of BYD going head to head with Tesla, with the Seal costing $10,000 less than the Model 3.

BYD stock is trading just below the 50-day line, but could also be working on a new base after reaching record highs in late June.

Tesla China sales won’t be out for a couple of weeks. Tesla Shanghai is undergoing some upgrades that will significantly increase capacity production. Tesla shares traded 9.15% higher in the past week to 891.47 after rising 13% last week on strong earnings. It is running towards its 200-day line, but is not there yet.


Tesla vs. BYD: Which EV giant is the best buy?


Market Rally Analysis

The last week was a turning point for the stock market rally, which showed a real change in character. Amid the biggest week of the earnings season, key economic data and the latest rate hike and guidance from the Fed, the major indexes edged higher — even when the news wasn’t positive.

After testing their 50-day lines early in the week, the major indexes returned to decisively move above that key level. The Nasdaq, which also crossed the peaks in early June, had its best month since April 2020, when the coronavirus rally began.

The Nasdaq’s 50-day line is moving up, another sign that the “trend” is positive.

The market recovery is back to a confirmed upward trend.

It is increasingly likely that the market has bottomed out. It does not necessarily mean that the major indices will race back to all-time highs.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are still facing their early June highs. Above that, the 200-day line looms as a significant test of the market rally.

Investors appear to be betting that the economy is in the midst of a soft landing that will cool inflation enough to spur the Federal Reserve to slow and then halt rate hikes. If the outlook changes, markets could struggle.

This week, investors will get the June job vacancies and the July jobs report. Are labor markets beginning to ease significantly?

Another potential problem is energy prices. Rising energy prices are good news for XOM shares and other oil and gas businesses. Gasoline futures — still well off their June highs — have rebounded off recent lows, suggesting prices at the pump will soon halt their recent retreat. It can limit the fall in inflation, and prevent consumers from shifting spending back to other areas.

Energy aside, some lithium names look interesting Albemarle (ALB) and Alive (LTHM) earnings are at a loss this coming week. Some steel plays try to break downtrends when they regain key levels.

Pharmaceutical and biotech stocks have pulled back, such as VRTX stock, but many are still performing well. A little strength can offer new contributions.

Hershey (HSY) and other food stocks are showing strength.

Growth names are moving off the bottom, but are still largely benefiting from highs.


Time the market with IBD’s ETF market strategy


What to do now

With the market recovery taking major steps in recent weeks, investors should increase their exposure. Do it gradually and watch for early entries. There is still risk that this is a bear market rally that will run out, while sector rotation remains an issue.

There are not many stocks that are in a position to buy. Some of the ones that look interesting have earnings on losses over the next few days, such as Vertex or ON stocks, complicating new buys.

With so many big earnings out of the way, the coming wave of results will likely be less meaningful to the market as a whole, but they will still be highly relevant to individual stocks and sectors.

Broad market or sector ETFs are still a good way to ride the current market. Software, chip or other technology ETFs are a way to get back into growth stocks that are still well out of position.

Continue to work on your watchlists and look for new leads.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock exchange updates and more.

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