Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Revs Higher, Time to Step on the Gas? Fat meeting looms
Dow Jones futures open Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with earnings season still in full swing. But investor focus will also turn to a key Federal Reserve meeting, as well as the jobs report in October.
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The stock rally had a volatile week, but eventually showed resilience and strength during the sell-off in Microsoft (MSFT), Meta platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL). The Dow Jones, Russell 2000 and, finally, the S&P 500 cleared their 50-day lines. The Nasdaq did not, but rebounded for strong weekly gains such as apple ( AAPL ) increased with its quarterly results.
Earnings season is still full of top companies reporting. Arista Networks (A WEB), Albemarle (ALB), CF Industries (CF), Cheniere energy (LNG) and Quanta services (PWR) report this coming week. ANET shares, Albemarle, CF, Cheniere and Quanta Services are all near potential buy points.
Here is a bonus share: At Semiconductor (ON), commonly known as Onsemi, reports before Monday’s opening. The ON share is close to a trend line entry. But this EV chip maker has seen wild stock action in recent months.
LNG stocks are on the IBD Leaderboard, while ALB stocks and CF Industries are on the Leaderboard watchlist. Arista Networks and CF stocks are on the IBD 50 list.
The video embedded in this article highlighted a key market week, while analyzing Arista Networks, Albemarle and LNG stocks.
Cool meeting
The Federal Reserve meets on 1-2 November, with policymakers set to raise interest rates again. Some relatively tame inflation data and various central bank movements and signals around the world have bolstered hopes that the Fed will soon move to smaller rate hikes.
Markets still strongly expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight meeting, although there is now a slight chance of just a half-point move. But for the December meeting, the focus has changed towards a half-point interest rate increase at the Fed.
So investors will be closely watching the Fed’s policy statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, and especially Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM, for any Fed pivot hints.
But there will still be plenty of Fed-moving economic data ahead of the year-end Fed meeting, including two jobs reports. The work report for October must be delivered next Friday, three days after the JOLTS survey in September. Signs of an easing in the labor market could boost Fed hopes. But robust hiring and falling unemployment could signal further big interest rate hikes and a higher end point.
Dow Jones Futures today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 PM ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Keep in mind that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.
Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live
Stock market rally
The share rally had some major earnings-related fluctuations and divergence during the week, but in the end the major indexes rose sharply.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.7% in early trade, its fourth straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 rose almost 4%. The Nasdaq composite rose 2.2%, including a Friday girl of 2.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 shot up more than 6%.
Apple shares rose 5.75% last week, including a 7.6% gain on Friday. Shares in the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq titan vaulted above their 50-day line and closed just below their 200-day. But AAPL stock needs to make more progress on the right side of a base. Microsoft shares, which fell 7.7% on Wednesday, ended the week down 2.6%. Google shares fell 4.8% in the past week while Meta crashed 23%. Amazon shares fell 13%, even after paring Friday’s losses.
The 10-year Treasury yield plunged 20 basis points to end at 4.01 on Friday, ending a 12-week winning streak. The 10-year yield rebounded from Thursday’s intraday low of 3.91%, around the 21-day line.
Meanwhile, the 3-month Treasury yield is at 4.09%, now above the 10-year yield. It is a stronger recession signal than the two-year/10-year inversion, which began several weeks ago.
US crude oil futures rose 3.4% to $87.90 a barrel last week.
ETFs
Among the top ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF ( FFTY ) rose 3% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF ( BOUT ) was up 4.8%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) rose 4%, even with MSFT stock a large stake. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) gained 3.45%, and all of that comes on Friday.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) gained 0.7% last week. The Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 5.5%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rose 5.6%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rose 7.1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 2.7%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) rose 5%, retracing its 200-day line.
Reflecting more speculative storied stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) jumped 8.4% last week and the ARK Genomics ETF ( ARKG ) 10%.
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Shares close to buy points
ANET stock jumped 9.9% to 121.47 in the heaviest weekly volume in eight months, rebounding above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Essentially all of the weekly gain came on Thursday, with Arista Networks seen as a notable beneficiary of Meta Platforms’ metaverse spending. ANET stock has cleared a short trend line, offering an early entry. A move above Thursday’s intraday high of 126.53 could offer a new entry from a longer trend line. But the earnings are at a loss on Monday evening.
ALB stock fell 3.8% to 280.16 last week, reclaiming its 50-day line. Price action has been encouraging over the past two weeks, but volume has been low. The Albemarle share has a buy point of 308.34. A strong move above the October 26 high of 287.07 could offer an entry for the lithium giant. Albemarle revenues are due Wednesday night. Complicating matters: Alive (LTHM) reports on Tuesday evening. The LTHM stock has a similar chart.
LNG shares fell 0.75% to 174.48 last week, but recovered from the 21-day and 10-week lines. Cheniere Energy stock now has a short cup-with-handle base with a buy point at 178.69. The Chenière earnings are due on Thursday.
CF shares fell 1.6% to 105.68 last week, turning modestly lower on Friday after trying to make a decisive move above the 50-day line and near-term levels. But it held the 10-, 21-, and 50-day lines, which are tightly stacked together. Clearing Friday’s high of 110.59 could offer an early entry, with 119.70 the official buy point. CF earnings are due on Wednesday. Fertilizer plays a role Nutrients (NTR) and Unfinished Potash (POT) also reports on Wednesday, but these stocks don’t look as healthy.
Quanta Services shares fell 5.8% to 141.18 last week, reclaiming its 50-day line. The shares rose 8.1 percent last week. PWR stock can form a handle on a daily chart, which is consistent with a short trend line. Currently, Quanta stock has a cup base with an official buy point at 149.43, according to MarketSmith analysis. This is reported by Quanta Services, which supplies infrastructure services to the supply industry, on Thursday.
“Bonus stock” On Semiconductor rose 2.7% last week to 67.48, moving back above its 50-day moving average. It is not far from a downward trend line from the peak at the end of August. Onsemi stock showed some resilience given the second electric car chip Wolfspeed (WOLF) crashed on guidance this past week.
So On Semiconductor earnings will be worth watching early Monday. But the ON stock has such large daily and weekly movements that perhaps it should be called On-and-Off Stock.
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Market rally analysis
The stock rally showed resilience in the face of heavy losses from tech megacaps. The S&P 500, after hitting resistance at its 50-day moving average, rallied decisively on Friday. The Russell 2000 is moving toward its 200-day line, while the Dow Jones actually topped that level on Friday as its winning streak stretches to six sessions and four weeks.
The Nasdaq is lagging, but moved back above its 21-day line on Friday and rose sharply for the week.
While the past week was encouraging, we still don’t know if this is a bear market rally or something more.
Could the Nasdaq now move above the 50-day line, then run on the 200-day line and beyond?
While earnings grabbed the headlines, falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar were key tailwinds for stocks this past week. These reflect the Fed’s central hope.
The Fed rate hike this coming Wednesday and the October jobs report on Friday will be key to the market recovery.
Meanwhile, in a bit of a reversal, with the key indexes moving higher, leading stocks looked a little less stellar.
As AlphaTrends’ Brian Shannon said on IBD Live Friday, it’s “pretty thin” out there when it comes to buying opportunities.
The energy names are still doing well, with LNG shares close to a buy point. So are some defensive growth names in healthcare. Discounts, auto parts dealers, insurance companies and a few restaurants are outstanding, with many of the defensive plays. But many of these names, including Eli Lilly (LLY) and O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), is already extended.
Traditional names with high growth are not doing particularly well. There were some notable reversals or selloffs in that area. Cloud weakness for Microsoft’s Azure and Amazon Web Services hammered cloud software stocks. But the meta expenses help ANET shares, Clean storage (PSTG) and perhaps some chipmakers such as e.g Nvidia (NVDA). Intel (INTC) jumped on poor results and guidance, suggesting that bad news is bad news for INTC and chip stocks in general. But they are generally beaten down.
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What to do now
The stock market rally had some major headwinds in the last week, and in the end dealt with them well. But the Fed meeting looms large this week, along with the ongoing income flood.
Investors can add some exposure, but may choose to wait until at least the Fed meeting. As for ALB stock, Arista Networks, CF Industries and many others, investors should probably wait for earnings results. The still limited number of shares that can be traded right now is also a reason to be cautious about adding new positions. Ongoing intraday, daily and weekly volatility for the major indices and individual stocks adds to the difficulty.
But the stock market rise is working well. Investors should participate. Build your watchlists and ensure you have a diverse collection of quality stocks.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock exchange updates and more.
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