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Business

Dow Jones Futures: Market gains sharply as Powell hints at slower rate hikes, but watch out for ‘Day 2’




Dow Jones futures fell slightly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with Meta Platforms and Qualcomm reporting earnings.




X



Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a second meeting in a row. Fed chief Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers are looking toward slowing the pace of tightening, even though the economy remains stressed and inflation-focused.

The major indices were already modestly to strongly higher, driven by positive reactions to earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Enphase Energy (ENPH).

Sen. Joe Manchin, DW.V., announced an agreement with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer late Wednesday on a reconciliation proposal with tax, climate and energy provisions. The deal, which could face a number of hurdles, includes a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%, regulation of drug prices, ObamaCare subsidy increases and pro-solar and green energy.

Cool meeting

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday afternoon, lifting rates to a target range of 2.25%-2.5%.

The central bank slightly lowered its view of the economy, noting that “consumption and production have softened”. But “job gains have been robust” while “inflation remains high.”

Fed Chairman Powell, speaking after the Fed meeting, stressed that policymakers are “strongly committed to bringing down inflation.” He said the economy is “resilient” with labor markets “extremely tight.”

Powell said it would likely be “appropriate” to slow Fed rate hikes as they become “more restrictive.” He expects Fed rates to be “moderately restrictive” by the end of the year, which he said will be in the 3-3.5% range.

After the Fed rate hike and Powell’s comments, the odds of a 50 basis point move on September 21 rose to 56% from about 50-50 before the Fed announcement. Further out, markets expect modest movements during the last two Fed meetings of the year, which will end the year around 3.25%-3.5%.

Key income

Meta platforms (META) and Qualcomm (QCOM) headline key revenue, with chip-equipment maker Lamb Research (LRCX), Service Now (NOW), O’Reilly Auto (ORLY), Ford Motor (F) and Teladoc Health (TDOC) also reported late Wednesday.

Meta stock retreated solidly after its Facebook parent missed earnings, reported its first-ever revenue decline and guided low.

Qualcomm shares fell modestly overnight on weak earnings guidance.

The LRCX share fell slightly after better than expected quarterly results.

NOW stock fell as the business software giant cut its subscription revenue guidance after slightly beating views for the second quarter.

Ford stock emerged from slightly beaten views, with an EPS increase of 423%.

ORLY shares fell after earnings were poor and the auto parts retailer led down.

TDOC stock plunged after the telemedicine specialist guided to the low end of full-year targets. Teladoc reported a big loss in the second quarter due to a large write-down, although revenue beat slightly.

Meanwhile, Best buy (BBY) cut its full-year forecast, citing weaker consumer spending amid high inflation. The BBY share fell modestly.

early Thursday, Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) is in print. Pfizer stock is near a trendline entry. Merck stock has been trading near its 50-day line as it consolidated over the past two months.

Late Thursday, apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) is on tap. Apple shares are modestly below the 200-day line after rising above the 50-day earlier this month. AMZN stock is also slightly above its 50-day line.

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.1% relative to fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2 percent. Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.4 percent.

Crude oil prices rose more than 1 percent.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Commerce Department will release second quarter GDP. Economists expect an annual increase of 0.5%, after a fall of 1.6% in the 1st quarter. Back-to-back declines in GDP will not officially mark a US recession. National Bureau of Economic Research economists decide on business cycle changes, usually long after the fact.

Keep in mind that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Stock market rally

Stocks rallied on Wednesday, led by big tech earnings, and then added to the rise on the Fed’s rate hike decision and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% in Wednesday’s trading. The S&P 500 index rose 2.6 percent. The Nasdaq composite rose 4.1 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 2.3%.

The US crude oil price rose 2.4% to $97.26 a barrel. Natural gas futures fell 3.4 percent.

ETFs

Among the top ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF ( FFTY ) rose 2.3%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF ( BOUT ) gained 1.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) rose 4.3%, with Microsoft shares a key component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) rose 4.7%, with QCOM shares and Lam Research leading components.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 3.4% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) gained 2.1%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rose 3.1%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rose 2.1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) jumped 2.3% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) jumped 1.5%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) rose 0.6%, with Pfizer and MRK major holdings.

ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ), reflecting more speculative history stocks, rose 6.7% and ARK Genomics ETF ( ARKG ) rose 3.9%.


Top five Chinese stocks to watch now


Meta revenues

Facebook parent Meta Platform’s revenue and earnings fell short, with the social media giant also guiding low on Q3 revenue.

Meta shares fell nearly 5% overnight. Shares fell 6.55% to 169.58 on Wednesday, riding on Google’s earnings and the general market rally. META stock had sold off 13% in the previous three sessions following the weak Snap (SNAP) report and guidance.

Qualcomm Revenue

Qualcomm revenue and earnings slightly beat fiscal Q3 EPS and revenue outlook, although gross margin was slightly low. The wireless chip giant also guided low on Q4 earnings.

QCOM shares fell nearly 4% in extended trading. Shares rose 2.3% to 153.42 in Wednesday’s trading, stopping below the 200-day line.

Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally enjoyed big gains on Wednesday after some noticeable losses in recent sessions. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded from near the 50-day lines.

But watch out for a day two reaction. The major indexes also rose after the previous two Fed meetings, but then sold off the next day.

While investors cheered Powell’s somewhat dovish hint on Wednesday, they can focus on why Fed rate hikes may start to slow down: a weak economy. That makes the GDP report for the second quarter particularly important.

Meanwhile, getting over last week’s highs will be the next test for the major indices, followed by early June highs.

There are still not many shares to buy. Growth stocks can break out of three-day consolidations, but often within ugly charts.

It was encouraging to see Microsoft and Google bounce back strongly despite missing revenue shows. Combat-Sealy (TPX) bounced despite weak results and reduced guidance.


Time the market with IBD’s ETF market strategy


What to do now

With the Fed meeting and a lot of big earnings out of the way, some of the hyper-uncertainty facing investors is dissipating. The market rally weathering this news-filled week, so far, is definitely positive.

There could still be a reversal of the Fed meeting on “day two”. Also, Apple and many others are still reporting this week, along with GDP data and other key economic reports.

With a limited number of attractive stocks in position, investors may wish to increase exposure via broad market or sector ETFs.

However, if the market continues to improve, buying opportunities will emerge and new positions will yield solid gains. So work on your watchlists.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock exchange updates and more.

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