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Dow Jones Futures: Jobs Report On Loss; Elon Musk rips threads as Twitter rival to start recording




Dow Jones futures were little changed after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The jobs report in June looms large.




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The share price rally retreated on Thursday as strong economic data sent government yields higher, although the indices pared morning losses somewhat. The ADP Employment Report estimated private payrolls skyrocketed by 497,000 in June, more than double forecasts. The ISM index for services rose more than expected. Initial jobless claims rose modestly, but the four-week average fell while continued claims fell. Announced layoff plans fell significantly last month.

Meta platforms (META) held up well as the Threads app hit 30 million signups in less than a day for its Twitter competitor, the fastest number of downloads ever. Twitter threatened legal action against its new rival. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, who owns Twitter, said “cheating” is not OK.

Microsoft (MSFT) rose amid a price rally.

Looking for stocks to hold; Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) holds in shopping areas, together with DexCom (DXCM). Nvidia (NVDA) continues to trade closely. HubSpot (HUBS) skidded on Thursday morning, but regained key support.

Meanwhile, the FDA approved Biogen’s Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi late Thursday. Biogenic (BIIB) and partner Eisai already have accelerated approval, but full FDA approval increases their chances of getting Medicare reimbursement for Leqembi.

The biogen storage was stopped after hours. Shares fell 0.3% during Thursday’s regular session. Eli Lilly (LLY), which has a similar Alzheimer’s treatment on trial. increased overnight. LLY shares fell 0.5% on Thursday.

The META stock, Nvidia and HubSpot are on the IBD Leaderboard. Microsoft stock is on the IBD Long-Term Leaders. HUBS stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20.

The video embedded in this article discussed Thursday’s market action and analyzed MSFT stock, Adobe (ADBE) and HubSpot.

Job Report: What to Expect

The Labor Department will release the jobs report for June at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists expect to see an increase of 213,000 jobs, down from May’s 339,000. Unemployment is to fall to 3.6 percent. Average hourly wage growth has cooled to 4.2% from May’s 4.3%.

ADP doesn’t have a good track record of forecasting Labor’s non-farm payrolls. Nevertheless, the odds of a rate hike on July 26 are now almost locked in at 93%. The odds of another quarter-point increase in November rose to about 56%, up significantly from a couple of weeks ago.

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures were flat versus fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

The jobs report is sure to swing Treasury yields and Dow futures ahead of the open.

Keep in mind that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Stock market rally analysis

The stock rally sold off sky-high returns after the ADP report, although the indexes closed lower. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.04%, a four-month high. The 2-year yield rose 5 basis points to 5% after hitting a 16-year high of 5.12% intraday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1.1% in Thursday trading. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite gave up 0.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.6% after Wednesday’s 1% slide.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 found support around their 10-day moving averages. But the Dow Jones fell below its 10-day and 21-day lines, not far from its 50-day average.

The market spread was dire Thursday, with losers outselling winners by 6-to-1 on the NYSE and by 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq. It followed negative breadth on Wednesday.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF ( RSP ) fell 0.8% and the First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF ( QQEW ) gave up 1.3%. But both bounced back from their 21-day lines.

US crude oil prices rose 1 cent to $71.80 a barrel.

Leading stocks retreated further on Thursday. Many found support at key levels, but not all.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) gave up just over 1%. The MSFT share is an important IGV component. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) fell 1.2% after Wednesday’s 1.9% loss. NVDA stock is the No. 1 SMH holding.

ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) fell 3.8% and ARK Genomics ETF ( ARKG ) 3.6% reflecting stocks with more speculative stories.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF ( XME ) fell 1.75%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 2.2%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was down 2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 2.25% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) fell 0.8%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLI ) lost 0.75%.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF ( XLF ) fell 0.9%, with Visa shares and MA large parts of the XLF ETF. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 0.6 percent.


Top five Chinese stocks to watch now


Meta Stock

META shares fell 0.8% to 291.99, holding strong after climbing 2.9% to a 17-month high on Wednesday in anticipation of the Threads launch.

The text-based threads, part of Instagram, launched Wednesday night and received more than 30 million entries. It is the best first day download ever, with ChatGPT getting 1 million downloads in the first five days.

With many celebrities, high-profile journalists, and other powerful Twitter users rapidly posting, Threads appears to be the biggest threat yet to Twitter. The site has struggled since Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion last fall. Musk has alienated many users and especially advertisers with various restrictions.

A lawyer for Twitter threatened legal action against Meta. In a letter to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alex Spiro accused Meta of poaching former Twitter employees and engaging in “unlawful misappropriation of Twitter’s trade secrets and other intellectual property.”

Musk, in a response to a tweet about the legal threat on Twitter, wrote “Competition is fine, cheating is not.”

Microsoft stock

Microsoft shares rose 0.9% to 341.27, bouncing from near its 21-day line. Morgan Stanley raised its MSFT stock price target to 415 from 335. Shares have been consolidating in recent weeks since hitting a record high of 351.47 on June 16. Investors may view the recent pause as a high-profile call to a consolidation back into late 2021. But investors should probably wait for a longer pause before seeking a Microsoft stock entry.

Stocks to watch

Visa shares fell 0.2% to 238.88, continuing to hold above a buy point of 235.57. Mastercard shares fell 0.3% to 393.14, just above a buy point of 392.20, according to MarketSmith analysis. The payments giants offered early entries last week, but both remain within range of the 50-day line.

Nvidia shares gave up 0.5% to 421.03, above its 10-day line. The shares are not far from the 21-day line, but they have not reached the short-term level of two months. The NVDA stock has a three-week tight pattern that could become a four-week tight pattern after Friday. A test of the 21-day line, or possibly the 400 level, could be a nice shakeout and allow the rapidly rising 50-day line to close the gap. The official buy point is 439.90, but Wednesday’s high of 431.77 would offer an early entry.

DexCom stock shaved 0.3% to 127.70, closing above the 126.44 flat-base buy point after finding support at its 21-day line for a third straight session. The DXCM share has struggled to manage a range since the beginning of November. But shares have trended higher, in choppy fashion, since late January.

HubSpot gained 0.1% to 521.34, closing above the 21-day mark. Shares fell to a low of 497.03 during the day, but rebounded from the 10-week line. Investors who bought HUBS shares as they tried to ride out a four-week tight at the end of June may have been shaken out. But it can be set up again.


Time the market with IBD’s ETF market strategy


What to do now

The new or renewed pullback in the market could be constructive, allowing new buying opportunities to emerge from pullbacks to key levels and possibly forging bases.

But investors don’t know that the current drop will be mild again, or that their positions will hold up relatively well.

It’s time to consider cutting some profits and be quick to cut losses, especially on recent purchases.

In the meantime, investors should look for the constructive pullbacks and stocks holding key levels and showing relative strength, such as HUBS stocks, Visa and perhaps Nvidia. Watchlists again may need serious revision in the coming days. But that work can bring big gains when the market rally goes higher again.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock exchange updates and more.

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