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Business

Dow Jones Futures: Fed Minutes lift market rally, Microsoft makes key move; Tesla rivals are in shopping zones




Dow Jones futures changed little overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The rise in the share price rose slightly on Wednesday in an up-and-down session, as hawkish Fed minutes contained few surprises. Treasury yields picked up again, still signaling a recession warning. The price of crude oil fell again, but came from the lowest level.




X



Microsoft stock and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) regained its 50-day moving average. Amazon.com (AMZN) and apple (AAPL) moved across its 10-week lines. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google stocks are long-term IBD leaders.

Tesla rivals BYD (WILL) and Li Auto (LI) are in purchase zones. BYD shares rose modestly within a buying zone while Li Auto fell back into range. Tesla stock went lower.

GME action split

After Wednesday’s closed, original meme action GameStop (GME) announced plans for a 4-to-1 share split. GME shares rose 9% overnight after closing down 2.4% to 117.30.

Share splits have returned in favor. Amazon shares split 20 to 1 in early June. The Google share will split 10-to-1 on July 15 while Tesla has proposed a 3-to-1 split. But the technological titans have or have had high stock prices, which makes it difficult to trade, for example, AMZN stock options. This is not the case with GME shares.

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures changed little relative to fair value. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose.

At 08:15 ET, ADP will release its estimate from June for employment in the private sector. At 08:30 ET, the Ministry of Labor publishes its weekly report on unemployment claims. They come ahead of Friday’s job report in June.

Keep in mind that overnight trading in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular trading session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Fed protocols, economic data

Fed minutes from the policy meeting 14-15. June revealed that decision-makers said a “restrictive policy” was needed, and that it might have to become “more restrictive”, for fear that inflation could be “anchored”.

Politicians saw an increase in late July of 50 or 75 basis points as likely, according to the Fed minutes. But Fed chief Jerome Powell said so already after the meeting.

More generally, the Fed minutes gave no real surprises and underlined the major shift in economic conditions over the past three weeks.

The Fed protocol mentioned “inflation” 90 times, but not “recession” once. Since the Fed meeting in mid-June, fears of a recession have increased while commodity prices have fallen sharply.

The Fed minutes boosted market expectations of a 75 basis point rise in interest rates later this month, by 50 basis points in September. December continues to mark the likely end of interest rate hikes in the Fed.

Earlier Wednesday, the Ministry of Labor’s JOLTS survey showed that vacancies fell to 11.254 million in May from April, up 11.68 million. It was slightly higher than expected, but the largest fall from month to month since August 2020.

The ISM non-industry index in June fell to a low of two years, but topped the outlook and continued to point to solid growth. The job sub-index fell to 47.4 from 50.2, below the break-even 50 level.

Stock market rally

The stock market move moved between small gains or losses for most of Wednesday’s trading. The major indices gained momentum after the publication of the Fed meeting minutes at

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% in Wednesday’s trading session. The S&P 500 index rose 0.4 percent. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.35 percent. The small company Russell 2000 fell 0.8%.

Microsoft and Google stock rose just over 1% to move above the 50-day moving average. Amazon shares rose 0.7%, reaching as high as the 50-day line and above the 10-week line. Apple shares fell during their 50 days, but Wednesday’s 1% rise pushed the iPhone giant over its 10-week line.

The US crude oil price fell 1% to 98.53 dollars per barrel, well outside the morning’s lowest level, but after plunging 8.2% on Tuesday. Gasoline futures, which peaked at $ 4 per gallon just a few weeks ago, fell 4% to $ 3.20. The prices of the pump have fallen in the last three weeks and are likely to fall significantly in the next few weeks.

The 10-year government interest rate rose 10 basis points to 2.9% after plunging 30 basis points in the three previous sessions. The two-year government interest rate rose 15 basis points to 2.97%. The yield curve for the Treasury is now slightly more inverted, which reflects increasing recession risk.

ETFs

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) was flat, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) received 1%. iShares’ Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 0.1%, with the MSFT stock holding a peak. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.7%.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) fell 0.7% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 0.1%. US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 1.5%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) lost 0.6%. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gave up 1.7% and Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) fell 0.25%. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose 0.7%.

Reflecting more speculative history stocks, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 2.25% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) fell 0.2% after both rose above their 50-day lines on Tuesday. The Tesla stock is a large holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest also owns some BYD shares.


Five best Chinese stocks to see now


China EV shares in buy zones

The BYD stock rose 1.1% to 40.55, after a brief test of 39.81 buying points from a deep cup with handles for a fifth session in a row during the day. On Sunday, BYD reported sales of 134,036 electric cars and plug-in hybrids in June, up 224% compared to a year earlier. For the second quarter, BYD sales topped Tesla deliveries with more than 100,000 vehicles. Tesla continues to lead in all-electric “BEV” sales, although this gap has narrowed significantly over the past year.

Li Auto shares fell 3.5% to 38.60. Intraday, the stock fell to 37.10, but closed above the buy point of 37.55 from a long, deep base. The LI share is still 39% above its 50-day line. Ideally, the hybrid SUV manufacturer would form a short base here, allowing the Li Auto share to digest its huge gains from early May to late June. Li Auto will begin deliveries of its second premium SUV, the L9, in late August.

Tesla shares fell 0.6% to 695.20 on Wednesday, just below the 21-day limit.


Tesla vs. BID: Which EV giant is the best buy?


Market Rally Analysis

The rise in equities contributed to Tuesday’s rise from the lowest levels during the day, but the major indices still seemed to be searching for direction.

The Nasdaq composite moved above its 21-day moving average on Wednesday, but the S&P 500 and Dow Jones met resistance at the short-term average. All three major indices are now back above the lowest levels for their June 24 follow-up days. Fall during their FTDs last week pushed the market rally to “under pressure”, where it still is.

The end of June and the 50-day line towers over the 21-day lines, with peaks in early June above it.

Good news about inflation and interest rate hikes from the Fed, including falling commodity prices and easing in the labor markets, is bad news for a possible recession. So the markets do not quite know how to handle economic data.

It is possible that the market will trend sideways for a while. It would allow many bases to form and for clarity to develop the economy and Fed policy. But even that happens, there can be headaches and shakeouts along the way for individual stocks and the overall market.

Medical stocks are still the clear leaders right now, including IBD 50 members Evolent health (EVH), McKesson (MCK), UnitedHealth (UNH), Harmony life sciences (HRMY) and AstraZeneca (AZN).


Time market with IBD’s ETF market strategy


What to do now

The rise in equities is under pressure, with the large indices still facing many important levels of resistance. While a number of medications and a handful of other stocks work well, even they can be subject to remarkable shakeouts.

So if you are going to take positions, make them small and look for early listings. Consider taking at least partial profits quickly to lock in some winnings. Do not hesitate to cut losses.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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