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Dow Jones Futures Fall: Market Rally Continues to Rise, But Here’s Why the S&P 500 Could Stop




Dow Jones futures fell modestly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. A strong stock market rally on Tuesday morning faded, and was briefly mixed after Russian missiles reportedly hit Poland.




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Goal (TGT) headlines Wednesday morning earnings, while the chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) threatens big on Wednesday evening.

The stock market rose on Tuesday morning on another tame inflation report. Walmart (WMT) earnings also helped. So did Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway which revealed it was taking a large new position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

The major indexes moderated the rise somewhat, but were quickly mixed on the reported Russian missile news. But the Dow recovered to turn positive again.

Poland missile attack

By mid-afternoon, stocks were reeling on reports that Russian missiles hit Przewodow, a Polish village just over the border with Ukraine. The missiles are said to have killed two people. It is possible that Russian missiles strayed from their target in Ukraine, or that Ukraine’s military shot down the missiles and landed in Poland. Moscow launched massive attacks against Ukrainian cities on Tuesday.

Russia has denied any responsibility. Poland said the strike appeared to be an “isolated incident”.

Deliberately hitting Poland would be extremely dangerous. All NATO members are obliged to defend all other members from attack. NATO ambassadors will meet on Wednesday morning for an Article 4 consultation, not the more aggressive Article 5 defense provision. But a much broader conventional war would increase the risk of nuclear weapons, creating an existential threat to the world and, of course, the stock market.

Putting aside the news of the missile attack from Poland, the market rally may be due to a pause after a strong run and the S&P 500 is approaching key resistance.

still, Free market (MELI) and Clean storage ( PSTG ) cleared buy points on Tuesday, though PSTG stock supported the official entry for a second straight session.

Retail income

Goal, Lowes (LOW) and TJX Cos. (TJX) reports earnings early Wednesday, along with October retail sales. It follows the Dow Jones giants Walmart and Home Depot (HD) earnings early Tuesday. WMT stock rose 6.5% on strong earnings, guidance and a large buyback, breaking out of a buy point. HD shares climbed 1.6% in an attempt to forge a handle.

TGT shares rose 3.6% on Tuesday, but hit resistance at the 200-day line, near a buy point at the bottom. Lowes advanced 2.15%, works with a handle on the bottom. TJX shares rose 2.9%, still in range from a 10-month cup with handle.

Nvidia reports this on Wednesday evening. Nvidia shares rose 2.3% on Tuesday, adding to big gains over the past month and boosting the chip sector. Strong earnings and guidance from Nvidia, as well as from the chip equipment giant Materials used (AMAT) on Thursday evening, will be important for the sector and wider market rally.

The video embedded in this article discussed Tuesday’s market rally and analyzed MELI shares, Pure Storage and Albemarle (ALB).

MercadoLibre stock has joined the IBD Leaderboard and was Tuesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day. The ALB share is on the leaderboard’s watch list. MercadoLibre and PSTG shares are on SwingTrader. Pure Storage is on the IBD 50.

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.3% relative to fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.35%.

The 10-year government yield fell 2 basis points to 3.78%.

Amazon.com ( AMZN ) began cutting corporate and technology workers on Tuesday, according to LinkedIn posts from affected Amazon employees. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant is reportedly planning to cut 10,000 jobs. AMZN stock fell 1% overnight.

On Tuesday evening, former President Donald Trump launched his 2024 candidacy for the White House.

Retail sales in October are expected at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect the Commerce Department to report a 1% increase, or just 0.2% excluding autos and gas.

Keep in mind that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Stock market rally

The share rally opened strongly as the producer price index came in lower than expected, with core PPI flat vs. September. The Walmart earnings also helped. TSM stock shot up 10.5% Tuesday night on news that Warren Buffett had taken a stake. Buffett’s Berkshire also took new positions in as well as new holdings Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) and Jefferies (JEF).

But the major indexes moderated the rise, and the Dow briefly turned negative on the report of Russian missiles hitting Poland.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% in Tuesday’s trading, even with WMT shares and Home Depot giving a boost. The S&P 500 index rose 0.5 percent. The Nasdaq composite rose 1.45 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.5%.

The 10-year government yield fell 7 basis points to 3.8%. The US dollar also fell.

US crude rose 1.2% to $86.92 a barrel after briefly rising more than 3% on the Russian missile news. Natural gas futures rose 1.7 percent.

ETFs

Among the top ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) is up 1.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) rose 2.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 3.15%, with Taiwan Semi and Nvidia making major components, along with AMAT.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF ( XME ) climbed 0.85%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF ( XHB ) gained 2.1%, with HD shares and Lowe’s significant holdings. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose just over 1% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 0.2%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) fell 0.1%.

ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) reflected more speculative story stocks, rising 2.7% and ARK Genomics ETF ( ARKG ) was just above break-even.


Top five Chinese stocks to watch now


Shares close to buy points

MELI shares rose 6.4% to 1,020.68, clearing a 1,018.10 cup-with-handle buy point. MercadoLibre’s volume was below normal, but the recent consolidation has a number of above-average volume gains. The Latin American e-commerce giant is enjoying strong earnings growth.

PSTG shares rose 1.6% to 31.56. Intraday, Pure Storage hit 32.47, clearing the 32.07 cup-with-handle buy point for a second straight session but failing to close above that entry, according to MarketSmith. PSTG shares finished flat at an early entry of 32.57.

The data storage firm is also enjoying strong earnings growth.

Market rally analysis

The stock rally got off to a strong start on Tuesday, buoyed by the PPI inflation report. But the major indexes rallied during the day, then were mixed following reports of the missile attack in Poland.

Perhaps the inflation/Fed narrative has changed. But that doesn’t mean the major indexes can’t hit resistance, especially after a recent strong run. And, as Tuesday’s action showed, there’s always the potential for geopolitics or other wildcards to undo a market trend.

The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 have both surpassed their 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 is approaching the 200-day line, where it hit strong resistance as early as August 16.

The Nasdaq is moving from the 50-day to the 200-day line, but has a long way to go.

Notably, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is just above its 200-day line. The Direxion Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQQE) is approaching the important long-term level.

Tech giants are coming back with the market, but are definitely not leading. Many titans hit bear market lows just last week. The one semi-exception is Nvidia shares, which have risen over the past month. But even the chip giant is still working towards its 200-day line.

However, many sectors are showing strength.

Solar, grid, contract electronics manufacturers and several medical product companies are doing well. So are a select number of chips, with several others trying to set up. A number of housing-related stocks look interesting, from builders to suppliers to home dealers.

Other dealers look good including WMT stock, BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) and Ulta beauty (ULTA). BJ’s reports Thursday.

Trucking companies are moving ahead, as investors bet the worst is over, or at least priced in, for shipping stocks.

Biotechnology and health insurance have stopped or withdrawn, but are generally in good shape. Energy stocks are also doing well, although many look extended.


Time the market with IBD’s ETF market strategy


What to do now

The major indices look strong, several shares are flashing buy signals and rising. Inflation data may have reached an inflection point, raising the prospect of a slowdown in Fed rate hikes and — perhaps — an end to tightening in the not-too-distant future.

So investors should take advantage of the current market rally. But they want to be careful about how much they add in the short term, given the possibility of a pullback or resistance in the market.

Don’t chase extended stocks. Be wary of buying stocks that are significantly extended from their 50-day moving averages, even if they are in official buy zones. Don’t be too concentrated. A portfolio focused on lithium stocks like Albemarle would have been burned on Tuesday.

But work on those watch lists, stay engaged and be ready to act.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock exchange updates and more.

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