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Dow Jones Futures Fall After Market Rally on Fed Hopes; The Musk-Twitter saga is not quite over




Dow Jones futures fell early Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with Treasuries and the dollar moving higher. OPEC+ is expected to announce a major production cut at today’s meeting.




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The attempted stock market rally continued on Tuesday, as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated amid hopes that the Federal Reserve could slow rate hikes. TWTR stock soars as Tesla CEO Elon Musk agrees to move forward with $44 billion Twitter (TWTR) takeover.

But, the Musk-Twitter saga is not quite over.

The major indices are moving higher, but have not retaken key levels or confirmed the new rally attempt yet.

Mega caps apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) all made strong gains. But only Microsoft stock closed above its 21-day moving average.

Still, leading stocks provide reasons to tip into the market, or at least get ready.

Arista Networks (A WEB), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Paylocity (PCTY), At Semiconductor (ON) and Devon energy (DVN) are all at or nearing early buy points. If the market rally continues to gain momentum, these stocks should be actionable. All have relative strength lines at or near heights.

Paylocity stock is on the IBD Leaderboard watch list and was Tuesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day. Microsoft and Google shares are on the IBD list of long-term leaders. Enphase, On Semiconductor and DVN stocks are on the IBD 50 list. The ENPH share, Onsemi and Arista Networks are on the IBD Big Cap 20.

The video embedded in this article highlighted Tuesday’s market action and analyzed PCTY stock, On Semiconductor and Neurocrine Life Sciences (NBIX).

Dow Jones Futures today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.9% relative to fair value. S&P 500 futures fell 0.9 percent. Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 0.85%.

The 10-year government yield rose 7 basis points to 3.69%. The dollar also rallied after pulling back in recent days.

New Zealand’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points overnight, after Australia raised rates by just 25 basis points a day earlier.

Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday after strong gains in the previous two sessions on expectations of a cut in the OPEC+ production quota. OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, is meeting this morning to discuss the size of a likely cut. There were reports that OPEC+ could cut production quotas by about 1.8 million barrels per day.

Keep in mind that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Elon Musk says he will move forward with Twitter deal

Musk agreed to proceed with the $44 billion, $54.20 per share Twitter deal.

The Musk-Twitter saga is not quite over. Twitter has not publicly accepted Musk’s latest terms, which offer no real guarantees and include a demand that the upcoming lawsuit be suspended.

The Musk-Twitter trial was set to begin on October 17, and the Tesla boss was seen as highly likely to lose.

For now, pre-trial events are still ongoing. That includes Twitter lawyers who are scheduled to depose Musk later this week.

Still, Musk may officially own the social media site in a few days.

Twitter shares, which were halted long on Tuesday, rose 22% to 52 as Musk blinked. While TWTR stock had traded well below its takeover price of $54.20, it had significantly outperformed Facebook’s parent company Meta platforms (META) and Snap (SNAP) in recent months.

Tesla ( TSLA ) rose 2.9% to 249.44, pulling away from intraday highs of 256.89 on the latest Musk-Twitter news.

Investors may wonder if Musk will sell TSLA stock to pay for the Twitter deal. He has already sold shares in the Twitter deal as a reason, but analysts estimate he may still need several billion dollars in TSLA stock sales.

Longer term, Tesla stock investors may fear that Musk’s attention will be further diverted from the EV giant as he adds Twitter to his portfolio of companies.

Still, TSLA investors may be happy to get the Musk-Twitter furor sooner.

Twitter shares fell early Wednesday. TSLA stock fell 1%.


TSLA vs. BYD: China EV Giant Expands Lead Vs. Tesla


Stock market rally on Tuesday

The stock rally followed Monday’s gains with strong gains on Tuesday, although the major indexes were supported by intraday highs.

Australia’s central bank raised interest rates for the sixth consecutive month, but unexpectedly only by 25 basis points. It followed the Bank of England resuming bond purchases last week as the new UK government’s budget battered the pound and UK debt.

The rally attempt accelerated at 10 a.m. ET after the JOLTS report showed that vacancies fell sharply in August, well below the views. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has specifically cited job vacancies as too high. While openings and the number of workers leaving remain high, the trend is Fed-friendly. On Friday, the Ministry of Labor will come out with the jobs report for September.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8% in Tuesday’s trading. The S&P 500 index rose 3.1 percent. The Nasdaq index rose 3.3 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 shot up nearly 4%.

The Apple share rose 2.6 percent, while Microsoft rose 3.4 percent. Both are members of the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Google shares rose 3% and Amazon rose 4.5%. All added up to solid gains on Monday, but needs a lot of repair work.

US crude oil prices rose 3.5% to $86.52 a barrel. OPEC+ meets on Wednesday, with reports that the cartel may cut production by 1 to 2 million barrels per day.

Gasoline futures jumped 6.8%, signaling a further increase at the pump. Natural gas futures rose 5.7 percent.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 3.62%, after falling 15 basis points on Monday. For the second day in a row, the 10-year yield found support at its rising 21-day line.

ETFs

Among the top ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) gained 3.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF ( IGV ) rose 3.8%, with MSFT stock a major IGV entry. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) rose 4.3%.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 3.8%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) rose 7.1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) gained 4.3%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) picked up 2.3%.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) both rose 7.6%, reflecting more speculative stock stocks. Tesla stock is a key holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs.


Top five Chinese stocks to watch now


Shares close to buy points

ANET shares rose 4.3% to 120.81, retracing their 200-day and 50-day lines, although volume was light. A decisive move above the 50-day mark is likely to break a short downtrend. Arista stock is working with a buy point at 132.97 from a consolidation within a much longer base.

ENPH shares rose 0.6% to 288.55, but fell back from 297.67 intraday. At the tops, Enphase stock retook its 50-day and 21-day lines and broke a brief downtrend.

PCTY stock fell 3.55% to 252.33, rebounding from its 50-day line on strong volume. Paylocity stock is right at a trendline entry, with a move above the September 28 high of 253.26 as a possible specific trigger point. The human resources software maker is in consolidation with a buy point of 276.98, according to MarketSmith analysis.

ON stock jumped 6.4% to 68.92, retracing its 50-day line, although trading was modestly below average. A bit more strength could see Onsi clear a trendline within a new consolidation alongside an earlier, deeper base.

DVN shares rose 5.7% to 69.07, up from the 50-day since it works on a cup with handle and 75.37 buy points. Devon stock is coming up to a trend line within the handle.


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Market rally analysis

The attempted stock market rally continued to increase, with a second strong gain for the major averages. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite broke above their 10-day moving averages and approached their 21-day lines. The small-cap Russell 2000, which continued to lead, made up the 21 days.

All indices still have some way to go to reach their bearish 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the mid-August highs another key area of ​​resistance.

Megacaps like Apple shares are doing their bit this week, but have a long way to go.

However, leading stocks are outperforming the major indexes, with several stocks breaking out, flashing early entries or moving into position for possible entries.

The stock market was undoubtedly the reason for a bounce. The decline in government interest rates and the dollar have clearly contributed to driving this week’s rise in shares. However, if yields and the dollar resume their uptrends, the market rally could quickly weaken.

While stocks are rising on hopes that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes, markets continue to price in a fourth hike of 75 basis points in November and a half-point move in December.

Tuesday was day two of a stock market rally for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. A follow-up day may come later this week to confirm the new uptrend.

Some might argue that the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 staged “follow-up days” on Tuesday. It is a positive sign, but will not trigger a change in market direction. Why? There is a low success rate for FTDs that do not include the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

A confirmed market rally may just mark the start of a tradable bear market rally versus a long-term uptrend. The 50-day and 200-day lines would be key levels to watch for an FTD.


Time the market with IBD’s ETF market strategy


What to do now

The attempt at a stock market rally is gaining momentum, with a number of managers flashing buy signals. Investors can take some pilot positions in certain stocks or broad market ETFs. But anyone who jumps in early must be ready to jump out just as quickly if the market recovery falters.

There is still nothing wrong with being almost or completely in cash.

But it’s definitely a time to work on your watchlists and keep a close eye on the market. Look for quality stocks that are actionable or nearly so.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock exchange updates and more.

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