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Business

Dow down more than 500 points as the brutal first half approaches




US stocks opened sharply on Thursday after the release of closely monitored inflation data, while Wall Street was heading for the worst first half of more than 50 years.

How is stock index futures trading?
  • The S&P 500 fell 72 points, or 1.9%, to 3,746.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 509 points, or 1.6%, to 30,519.

  • The Nasdaq Composite fell 296 points, or 2.7%, to 10,881.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA
rose 82 points, or 0.3%, to 31,029.31. S&P 500 SPX
lost 0.1% to 3,81[ads1]8.83. Nasdaq Composite COMP
lost less than 0.1%, ending at 11,177.89.

The action on Wednesday was choppy, leaving the CBOE Volatility Index VIX
– a measure of expected volatility in the stock market – raised to 28.2, compared with the long-term average around 20. By mid-morning Thursday, the volatility index had climbed to 29.4, approaching the psychologically important 30 level.

What drives the markets?

US equities traded lower after a key measure of US inflation rose 0.6% in May, mainly due to higher gas and food costs, although there were signs that price pressures were beginning to ease.

The increase in the so-called price index for private consumption was a tripling of the rise of 0.2 per cent in April. But a narrower measure of inflation that omits volatile food and energy costs, known as core PCE, rose by a relatively modest 0.3% for the fourth month in a row – below Wall Street’s 0.4% forecast.

Meanwhile, real disposable income has remained largely flat since January as rising living costs have absorbed all the increased purchasing power from rising wages and more jobs.

“Americans are running faster just to stay steady. No wonder consumer confidence is in the pit,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.

Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he saw a way back to 2% inflation, but warned that there was “no guarantee that we can do it” while maintaining a strong labor market. The PCE target is the Fed’s preferred inflation meter.

The S&P 500 was on track to take the losses for 2022 to more than 20%. Since peaking at close to 4,800 in early January, the US equities benchmark has curled, amid investors’ fears that rising inflation will erode consumer confidence and hurt the global economy.

Read: What’s next for the stock market after the worst first half since 1970? Here’s the story.

The mood has also been affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a move that has increased geopolitical anxiety and contributed to sharply rising energy and food prices.

In previous recent episodes of tantrums, such as the COVID-19 sale in 2020, investors could turn to central banks for help. But with inflation in most major economies at its highest level in decades, monetary watchdogs like the Federal Reserve are underlining their commitment to tighten policy to curb price pressures. Even if it means harming the growth and consequently the corporate profits.

“I do not envision equities recovering until the US fixed income market prices more meaningful cuts from the Fed,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, in a note to clients.

“Implicit Fed pricing has fallen in recent weeks – from a peak of 4% to more than 3.50%. But there is a lot of interest rate risk for the market to digest,” he said.

The first number of unemployed fell by 2,000 to 231,000 in the week ending June 25, the Ministry of Labor said on Thursday. Economists asked by The Wall Street Journal had estimated that new claims would reach 230,000 from last week’s first estimate of 229,000.

Read: These 10 shares in the S&P 500 have lost $ 4.1 trillion in investors’ money during the first half of 2022

The return on the US 10-year Treasury BX: TMUBMUSD10Y
was down 7.7 basis points to 3.024%, reflecting a move to expected deadlines. Deteriorated risk appetite has pushed bitcoin BTCUSD
back under $ 20,000 on Thursday.

To increase concern for traders, the company’s earnings season is in the second quarter, which will kick off in the coming weeks. Recent reports from consumer companies – such as Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY
– has been poorly received.

Other markets
  • Better news emerged from Asia, where a survey of China’s manufacturing sector recorded expansion for the first time since March after easing COVID-19 restrictions. Shanghai Composite CN: SHCOMP rose 1.1% in response.

  • The mood in Europe was also cautious, with the STOXX 600 XX: SXXP, a benchmark index for euro area companies, down more than 2%, while the FTSE 100 UK: UKX, an index for the leading UK companies, was down 0.2 per cent.

  • Gull GC00
    was down 0.1% while the ICE US Dollar Index DXY
    was essentially flat at 105, only shy of its strongest level in 20 years.

Transfer of single shares
  • 29 of 30 Dow shares traded lower Thursday, with Travelers Companies TRVInc.
    just barely clinging to profits while Salesforce Inc. CRM,
    Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA,
    Boeing Company BA
    and Goldman Sachs Group GS
    were the worst priests.

  • Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH,
    Carnival Corp. CCL
    and Royal Caribbean Cruises RCL
    was among the worst results on the S&P 500.

  • Tools like Constellation Energy Corp. CEG
    was among the S&P 500’s best performances, with Constellation up almost 2%.



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