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As the Ripple lawsuit nears its final conclusion, legal experts in the crypto community offer their views on a possible outcome of the case.
Earlier this week, former SEC counsel Marc Fagel predicted that the Ripple lawsuit would be resolved within days. The bold forecast provoked a reaction from the XRP community, which sought to know the reason for Fagel’s deduction.
Giving the reason, Fagel said his only point of reference is the recent order of rescission, which suggested the court had already decided what the ruling would be. On June 13, after a long back-and-forth between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Hinman documents were finally unsealed and made publicly available.
After Fagel revealed this, a Twitter user asked if the expungement of the documents ahead of a decision could be a sign that everything might not go to trial. The Twitter user asked if he thinks the unsealing might not be for disclosure, leaning toward partial summary judgment.
The former SEC attorney revealed that he has no guesses on this. Rather, he believes that the removal of materials, if it is at all applicable, will first emerge in the trial rather than by summary judgment. For him, this could indicate that some of the material is on its way to trial, and he adds that anything beyond what he said is speculation.
His response drew the attention of Bill Morgan, a lawyer and XRP enthusiast, who said he agrees with Fagel’s opinion and stated that some of the cases may go to trial. Morgan adds that “neither party will win entirely on summary judgment.”
Past predictions of outcomes
Last December, as the summary judgments in the lawsuit were about to be fully briefed, John Deaton presented three outcome scenarios and their implications.
First, the judge completely agrees with the SEC. Second, Ripple wins outright, and the judge criticizes the SEC for following its implausible theory that tokens are securities.
Third, a scenario where Judge Torres splits the proverbial baby and rules that Ripple at one point “offered” unregistered security. But XRP itself is not a security, nor is sales on the secondary market independent of Ripple.
Deaton stated that regardless of the outcome, the Ripple case is “ground zero” and will set a significant precedent.