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Home / Business / Contract investor Steven Jon Kaplan calls the bull market anniversary a fake

Contract investor Steven Jon Kaplan calls the bull market anniversary a fake

A good anniversary for someone, a painful reminder for others.

Wednesday marks exactly 10 years to the day when S & P 500 fell to 666 in intraday trading, a recent downturn for stocks that marked the end of an evil bear market and the start of today's bull market in the eyes of anyone. Others point it to the final low score three days later on March 9.

Here's Slope of Hope's Tim Knight, and the recall in the way we were at his blog: "Think of the world in March 2009. Obama was still getting around in The White House, Facebook was a private company, Netflix was five dollars a share, and ZeroHedge was just a few weeks old. "

And if the $ 5 Netflix share vision doesn't make you shake a fist in the sky, is Northman Trader sven Hensen, driving it home: "March 6, 2009, Kylie Jenner was 11 years old and continuing to become a billionaire 10 years later. What did you all do?"

Hopefully you managed to get a share of the 300 % the gain S & P 500 has seen since March, because the good times are definitely over, our call the day, by Steven Jon Kaplan of the True Contrarian blog and newsletter.

"We're no longer in a beef market, we topped last summer. So this is a false anniversary," Kaplan MarketWatch told, in an interview on Tuesday. It definitely puts him in the camp of those who are not who do not celebrate the 10th anniversary of this bull market.

Kaplan has observed two bear markets since the newsletter started in 1996. He sees a classic mistake made now that investors only look back to last year, instead of comparing the latest results to the last major meltdowns.

For one, US equity values ​​are at altitude-sick levels against the rest of the world – either near or below their average historical levels.

"US stock indices such as S & P 500, measured by price revenues, price-to-book, and other story-like measures dating back to the late 1700s, were only more overvalued compared to their earnings twice before: from late 1999 through early 2000 and August-September 2018, "said Kaplan.

And he also notes that while all global markets rallied in early 2018, they returned in January while Wall Street continued He said investors just dived into US stocks, with tax deductions giving people a reason why the shares were rising when in reality they were just wanting to own a market that achieved.

Kaplan, who says he likes to see investors, "do not lose 50% of their assets a third time in 20 years," he says, keeping an eye on ICE's US dollar index

DXY, -0.04%

a measure of the US currency against six major rivals. He says that in the last two major markets, the dollar pulls down to a low and suddenly increased higher just before the share price decline approached another ugly step lower.

Here's his chart showing how the dollar behaved in the financial crisis 2007-09, and then another showing the S&P 500 in the same period. "If you are an experienced trader, when you get to the bad point, people buy US dollars as a sanctuary," Kaplan said.

True Contrarian

Opinion: Here's why the latest stock gains could be just a bear market rally

Read: Dow transports on the edge of the longest losing strip of about 10 year

He says investors should not just sit on their hands right now and give up some cheap ideas on how to make money while waiting for the boom to come down on Wall Street. True to his blog name, he likes "unpopular" and counterproductive ideas, like an ETF by Indian companies – VanEck Vectors India Small Cap Index ETF

SCIF, + 6.34%

which he says has one of the lowest price / income ratios in the world.

Also on his handlist, a fund of small Chinese companies – Xtrackers Harvest CSI 500 China A-shares Small Cap ETF

ASHS, + 2.85%

Global X MSCI Pakistan

PAK, -0.54%

is also on his list right now.

"If the US stock market is really in a bear market, why go there when we can invest in all those other markets around the world and get bigger returns?" Kaplan asks.

The Market

It looks like a lukewarm anniversary, with Dow

YMH9, -0.22%

S & P 500

ESH9, [20459018] -0.20%

and Nasdaq

NQH9, -0.18%

futures tilting south. A listless trading day ended with losses on Tuesday for Dow

DJIA, -0.05%

S & P 500

SPX, -0.11%

and Nasdaq

COMP, -0.02%

More coverage in Market Snapshot

Return on 10-year government bond

TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.27%

slid to 2.703%. Coarse

CLJ9, -1.26%

down on concerns about rising US supplies, gold

GCJ9, + 0.30%

is higher and the dollar

DXY, -0.04%

is firmer with the pound

GBPUSD, -0.2277%

down on Brexit news and Aussie dollars

AUDUSD, -0.7904%

affected by weak growth data.

Europe stocks

SXXP, -0.01%

is mostly down the table. Asia shares were mainly higher, led by a 1.4% gain for the Shanghai Composite

SHCOMP, + 1.57%

Lesson: CFO of one of Italy's largest banks says that better-capitalized lenders should compensate for "judgment" fears


] Nine

NIO, + 3.89%

tanks after the Shanghai-based electric car manufacturer had a larger than expected loss. Read: Tesla falls to 4 months low as analysts question the latest decisions, fret cash burn

Several dealers rolled out reports, with Dollar Tre

DLTR, + 0.21%

BJs Wholesale Club

BJ, + 2.46%

and Chico's FAS

CHS, + 2.90%

and American Eagle Outfitters

AEO, + 0.34%

is due after the clock. Brown-Forman

BF.A, + 0.12%

peaked forecasts, but missed on sales.

The pursuit of a thousand-year talent? Goldman Sachs moves to "flexible dress code."

The first major Chinese IPO of 2019: 5 things to know

The quote

"Although they land a deal, it's probably limited and won't bring much security to the world." It was the OECD chief economist Laurence Boone, who spoke to The Wall Street Journal after the research community cut their forecasts for most global economies . Europe carries the use of the unspoilt view.


Prior to Friday's job data, ADP employment showed that the private sector increased 183,000 jobs in February . We also get the trade balance, factory orders and later, Beige Book.

Read: A strong, improved labor market outweighs all the bad news recently on the economy

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