China's unparalleled pig crisis to influence the world, experts warn
For nearly 40 years of analysis of commodity markets, Arlan Suderman says he has never witnessed an industry-supporting event as dramatic as the spread of infection spreads across China's pig farms.
Varedekonomen has warned clients about the impact of African swine fever, as he says, not only is underreported, but will spur a restructuring of China's entire farming industry and trigger an escalation of meat prices globally.
Most people react in disbelief, says Suderman, but the situation will probably worsen before it gets better.
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"I've never met any of the extent of African swine fever before," said Suderman from his office in Kansas City, where he has field reports from
April 27, 2019
Greenpeace activists hold banners reading "Climate Speed: Think, Vote, Act" at the top of Columbus (Colon) Monument in Barcelona on April 27, 2019 as part of an awareness campaign on the threshold of Spain's election. – Spain returns to the polls on April 28 for unpredictable snap choices marked by the resurgence of the far right after more than four decades on the outer margin of politics.
AFP / Getty Images
2/52 April 26, 2019
A security officer stands guard outside St. Anthony's Shrine, days after a series of suicide bombings on churches and luxury hotels across The island on Easter Sunday, in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Reuters
3/52 April 25, 2019
Palestinian beekeepers inspecting hive at the honeybee in the east of Khan Youni's city, near the border with Israel, the southern Gaza Strip. The beekeeper gathers honey and wax from the beehive at this time of this year
EPA
4/52 April 24, 2019
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a Russian honor after arriving at a railway station in Vladivostok, for the summit to be held with Russian President Vladimir Putin
EPA
5/52 April 23, 2019
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi Moves as he has the grandson of India's Government Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) President Amit Shah after he cast his vote in a polling station in the third paragraph of the Ahmedabad General Assembly
Reuters
6/52 April 22, 2019
A woman living in near St Anthony's sanctuary runs for safety with her baby after police found explosive devices in a parked vehicle in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Bombings on Easter Sunday dragged through churches and luxury hotels killed at least 290 people.
AP
7/52 April 21, 2019
Police and security personnel stand guard outside the Shangri-La Hotel in Sri Lanka capital Colombo after a bombing attack; One of eight cross country on Easter Sunday
EPA
8/52 April 20, 2019
A protest goes through tear gas deployed by security services on the 23rd week of Gilets Jaune's protests in Paris [19659017]] Getty
9/52 April 19, 2019
Ultra-Orthodox Jews burn sourdough in the Mea Shearim neighborhood in Jerusalem in front of the Jewish Easter in Jerusalem
Reuters
10/52 ] April 18, 2019
Christian worshipers participate in the process of the Holy Thursday, during the Catholic wash of the feet ceremony on the Easter weekend, at the Holy Sepulcher's Church in Jerusalem's Old Town
EPA [19659019] 11/52 17 April 2019
A young girl walks past the UWSA military contingents before a parade held to mark the 30th anniversary of the Wa State in Panghsang, also called Pang Kham for the autonomous Wa region, northeastern Myanmar. Wa declared himself an independent state on April 17, 1989. Although the Government of Myanmar does not recognize the sovereignty of the Wa State, the Myanmar military has adopted a ceasefire with the state since May 9, 1989. The Wa State has been known for drug trafficking in the Golden Triangle For the past 30 years, even though it declared its region a drug-free zone in 2005
EPA
12/52 April 16, 2019
Firefighters spread water as they work to extinguish the fire at Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris. The big flame that destroyed the cathedral is "under control", said the fire department in Paris early April 16 after firefighters spent hours beating the flames
13/52
15. April 2019
Smoke and flames rise during a fire at the Notre-Dame Cathedral in the center of Paris
AFP / Getty
14/52 April 14, 2019
Indonesian soldiers and police at a general security roll call for upcoming elections in Jakarta. Some 192 million Indonesians are set to vote in the world's third largest democracy, with a record of 245,000 candidates strengthening positions of the presidency and parliamentary seats right down to the local council's jobs
AFP / Getty
15/52 13. April 2019
Hindu devotees cast sacred flammable powder on a fire when performing rituals during the Gajans festival in Kolkata. The festival falls on the last day of the Bengali calendar that also coincides with the birth of Lord Shiva, according to Hindu mythology
AFP / Getty
16/52 April 12, 2019
A woman visits exhibit & # 39; Mirrors: In and Out of Reality & # 39; in Barcelona, Spain. Mathematics, physics and photonics melt in this exhibition, presented by Cosmocaixa, where visitors can enter a large kaleidoscope to go through and experience mirror effects and special features. The exhibition will be open for public until June 6, 2019
EPA
17/52 April 11, 2019
The votes cast up to cast their vote outside a polling station in the first phase of the election election Alipurduar district in eastern state of West Bengal, India
Reuters
18/52 April 10, 2019
The first image that is a black hole, taken with a global network of telescopes, performed by Event The Horizon Telescope (EHT) project, to gain insight into heavenly objects with grave fields so strong no fever or light can escape
Event Horizon Telescope / National Science Foundation / Reuters
19/52 April 9 2019
Sudanese protesters sang slogan as they rally in front of the headquarters of the capital Khartoum. Sudan police ordered their forces to avoid arresting protesters as three Western nations drew the weight of protesters' demands for a political transition plan in the country
AFP / Getty
20/52 April 8, 2019
German Chancellor Angela Merkel plays with a handball given to her by the German Handball Federation president when she received the German National Handball Team in Berlin's Chancellery
AFP / Getty
21/52 April 7, 2019
] People hold candles when they attend a night watchman and prayer at the Amahoro Stadium as part of the 25th Memorial Day of the 1994 Genocide, in Kigali, Rwanda. April 7, 100 days of mourning begins for over 800,000 people slaughtered in a genocide that shocked the world, a quarter of a century from the day it began
AFP / Getty
22/52 April 6, 2019
Part of the 1500 participants field begins the trek to the highest point over the Florida Keys Overseas Highway longest span during the Seven Mile Bridge Run Saturday. The event entails participants taking courses on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico convergence and helping to raise funds for local youth athletic programs
April 5, 2019
5. April 2019
A refugee father and son lie on railroad tracks to prevent a train leaving a station during a protest in Athens, Greece. Thousands of immigrants staged a protest in Athens Central Station interfering with all rail services hoping that they will be transported to the Greek border and joining other refugees trying to follow a 2016 migration route to Northern Europe
Getty
24/52 April 4, 2019
Security agents and police officers hold back immigrants during the evacuation of a temporary camp at Porte de la Chapelle in Northern Paris. More than 300 immigrants and refugees were evacuated early April 4 from a temporary camp to homes
AFP / Getty
25/52 April 3, 2019
An Alexandra township resident movement and they are clashing with Johannesburg Metro Police, South Africa during total closure of the township due to protest against lack of service provision or basic necessities such as access to water and electricity, housing problems and lack of public road maintenance
AFP / Getty [19659019] 26 / 52
Greenpeace activists hold banners reading "Climate Speed: Think, Vote, Act" at the top of the Columbus (Colon) Monument in Barcelona on April 27, 2019 as part of an awareness campaign on the way to Spain's election. – Spain returns to the polls on April 28 for unpredictable snap choices marked by the resurgence of the far right after more than four decades on the outer margin of politics.
AFP / Getty Images
2/52 April 26, 2019
A security officer stands guard outside St. Anthony's Shrine, days after a series of suicide bombings on churches and luxury hotels all over The island on Easter Sunday, in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Reuters
3/52 April 25, 2019
Palestinian beekeepers inspecting the hive of honey building in the east of Khan Youni's city, near the border with Israel, the southern Gaza Strip. The beekeeper gathers honey and wax from the hive at this time of this year
EPA
4/52 April 24, 2019
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a Russian honor after arriving at a railway station in Vladivostok, for the summit to be held with Russian President Vladimir Putin
EPA
5/52 April 23, 2019
India's prime minister Narendra Modi as he holds the grandson of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Amit Shah after voting at a polling station in the third paragraph of the Ahmedabad General Assembly
Reuters
6/52 April 22, 2019
A woman living nearby St. Anthony's Sanctuary runs for safety with her baby after police found explosive devices in a parked vehicle in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Bombings on Easter Sunday dragged through churches and luxury hotels killing at least 290 people
AP
7/52 April 21, 2019
Police and security personnel are guarding outside Shangri-La Hotel in Sri Lanka capital Colombo after a bombing attack; One of eight cross country on Easter Sunday
EPA
8/52 April 20, 2019
A protest goes through tear gas deployed by security services on the 23rd week of Gilets Jaune's protests in Paris [19659017]] Getty
9/52 April 19, 2019
Ultra-Orthodox Jews burn sourdough in the Mea Shearim neighborhood of Jerusalem in front of the Jewish Easter in Jerusalem
Reuters
10/52 ] April 18, 2019
Christian worshipers participate in the process of the Holy Thursday, during the Catholic wash of the feet ceremony on the Easter weekend, at the Holy Sepulcher's Church in the ancient city of Jerusalem
EPA [19659175] 11/52 17 April 2019
A young girl walks past the UWSA military contingents before a parade held to mark the 30th anniversary of the Wa State in Panghsang, also called Pang Kham of the Autonomous Wa region, northeastern Myanmar. Wa declared himself an independent state on April 17, 1989. Although the Government of Myanmar does not recognize the sovereignty of the Wa State, the Myanmar military has adopted a ceasefire with the state since May 9, 1989. The Wa State has been known for drug trafficking in the Golden Triangle the last 30 years, although it declared its region a drug-free zone in 2005
EPA
12/52 April 16, 2019
Firefighters spread water as they work to extinguish the fire at Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris. The big flame that destroyed the cathedral is "under control", said the fire department in Paris early April 16 after firefighters spent hours beating the flames
13/52
15. April 2019
Smoke and flame rise during a fire at the Notre-Dame Cathedral in the center of Paris
AFP / Getty
14/52 April 14, 2019
Indonesian soldiers and police at a general security interview for upcoming elections in Jakarta. Nearly 192 million Indonesians will be voting in the world's third largest democracy, with a record of 245,000 candidates directing presidency positions and parliamentary seats right down to local council jobs
AFP / Getty
15/52 April 13 2019
Hindu devotees cast sacred flammable powder on a fire when performing rituals during the Gajans festival in Kolkata. The festival falls on the last day of the Bengali calendar which also coincides with the birth of Lord Shiva, according to Hindu mythology
AFP / Getty
16/52 April 12, 2019
A woman visits exhibit & # 39; Mirrors: In and Out of Reality & # 39; in Barcelona, Spain. Mathematics, physics and photonics melt in this exhibition, presented by Cosmocaixa, where visitors can enter a large kaleidoscope to go through and experience mirror effects and special features. The exhibition will be open to the public until June 6, 2019
EPA
17/52 April 11, 2019
The votes cast up to cast their vote outside a polling station in the first phase of the election election in Alipurduar district in eastern state of West Bengal, India
Reuters
18/52 April 10, 2019
The first image that is a black hole, taken with a global network of telescopes, performed by Event The Horizon Telescope (EHT) project, to gain insight into celestial objects with gravitational fields so strongly that no feeder or light can escape
Event Horizon Telescope / National Science Foundation / Reuters
19/52 April 9 2019
Sudanese protesters sang slogan as they rally in front of the headquarters of the capital Khartoum. Sudan police ordered their forces to avoid arresting protesters when three Western nations emphasized protesters' demands for a political transition plan in the country
AFP / Getty
20/52 April 8, 2019
German Chancellor Angela Merkel plays with a handball given by the German Handball Federation president when she received the German national handball team at the cancellation in Berlin
AFP / Getty
21/52 April 7, 2019
] People holds candles when attending a night watchman and prayer at the Amahoro Stadium as part of the 25th Memorial Day of the 1994 Genocide, in Kigali, Rwanda. On April 7, 100 days of mourning for more than 800,000 people were slaughtered in a genocide that shocked the world, a quarter of a century from the day it began
AFP / Getty
22/52 April 6, 2019 [19659016] Part of the 1500 participants field begins the trek to the highest point over the Florida Keys Overseas Highway's longest span during the Seven Mile Bridge Run Saturday. The event includes participants heading over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico convergence and helping to raise funds for local youth reliefs
AFP / Getty
23/52 April 5, 2019
April 5, 2019
] A refugee father and son lie on railroad tracks to prevent a train leaving a station during a protest in Athens, Greece. Thousands of immigrants staged a protest in Athens Central Station interfering with all rail services hoping that they will be transported to the Greek border and joining other refugees trying to follow a 2016 migration route to Northern Europe
Getty
24/52 April 4, 2019
Security agents and police officers hold back immigrants during the evacuation of a temporary camp at Porte de la Chapelle in Northern Paris. More than 300 immigrants and refugees were evacuated early April 4 from a temporary camp home
AFP / Getty
25/52 April 3, 2019
An Alexandra township resident movement and they are clashing with Johannesburg Metro Police, South Africa during total closure of the township due to protest against the lack of service provision or basic necessities such as access to water and electricity, housing problems and lack of public road maintenance
AFP / Getty [19659175] 26 / 52 April 2, 2019
Children eat next to the destruction of damaged homes in the Purainiya village in Nepal's southern Bara district near Birgunj, after a rare storm. The freak storm tore down the houses and overturned cars and trucks as it swept over southern Nepal that killed at least 27 people and left more than 600 injured
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28/52 March 31, 2019
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29/52 March 30, 2019
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30/52 March 29, 2019
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31/52 March 28, 2019
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32/52 March 27, 2019
A pa train protests move a burning ti during clashes with Israeli troops near the Jewish settlement of Beit El in the Israeli occupied West Bank
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33/52 March 26, 2019
Palestinian sister girls see on a destroyed Hamas side near their family's broken house after an Israeli air raid in Gaza City. According to reports, Israel continued to launch air strikes on the Gaza Strip the night after a rocket allegedly fired hit a house near Tel Aviv in central Israel, injuring at least seven people
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34/52 25. March 2019
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hold a proclamation that recognizes Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights when Netanyahu leaves the White House
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35/52 March 24, 2019
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36/52 March 23, 2019
] Chris Pratt gets slim while accepting the best Butt-Kicker award for "Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom" at the Kids Choice Awards
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37/52 March 22, 2019
Et lu photo shows damaged buildin gs after an explosion at a chemical plant in Yancheng, China's eastern Jiangsu province. China's President Xi Jinping ordered local authorities to prevent several industrial disasters after a chemical plant was blown again 47 people died, injured hundreds and flattened an industrial park in the last disaster to land
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38/52 21 mars 2019
Et barn transporteres på kjøleskap under flom etter Cyclone Idai, i Buzi, utenfor Beira, Mosambik
Reuters
39/52 20. mars 2019
Indisk Hindu devotees are sprayed with coloured water as they celebrate the Holi festival at the Kalupur Swaminarayan Temple, in Ahmedabad. Holi, the popular Hindu spring festival of colours is observed in India at the end of the winter season on the last full moon of the lunar month
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40/52 19 March 2019
Shards of ice pile up on Lake Michigan along the South Haven Pier
Kalamazoo Gazette/AP
41/52 18 March 2019
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The viral disease, first reported in China in August, has infected swines across the nation, as well as Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia.
In China, which raises half the world’s pigs, it’s led to the death and destruction of millions of pigs, pushing up pork prices and causing reverberations across global grain, meat and financial markets, as well as the Chinese economy.
Latest forecasts point to a loss of swine this year equivalent to the European Union’s annual supply.
Before he became chief commodities economist at New York-based brokerage INTL FCStone, which specialises in commodities and dates it origins back almost 100 years to a door-to-door egg wholesaler, Mr Suderman’s career included 12 years focusing on crop production efficiency and marketing risk management at Kansas State University Extension Service and another 12 years working for Farm Progress.
Mr Suderman has his doubts about official data in Ch ina that shows a slowdown in the number of pigs affected since late 2018, with the government saying the disease is “under effective control”.
He offers some of the most pessimistic estimates among industry insiders, informed by his colleagues in China.
Just last week, they reported to him that African swine fever is “spreading just as badly as it has been, and is continuing to get worse”, he said.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) echoes Mr Suderman’s views, saying last month that pig farms are “vastly” under-reporting outbreaks.
“Unofficial reports from China suggest far greater losses” than official data that shows culls are a fraction of China’s total pig supply, the USDA said in a separate report earlier this month.
Three farmers in Hebei and Sichuan provinces declined to speak publicly about the hesitation to report infected pigs, citing the political sensitivity of the matter, but concede d that under-reporting was rife in their areas.
Although pig farms are required to report outbreaks to their local governments, the infections may not be recorded by officials because of the subsequent cost of compensating farmers for the livestock losses, and fear of a political backlash for disclosing the widespread nature of the disease.
No one answered calls to the agricultural departments of Hebei and Sichuan provinces. A fax inquiry sent to China’s agriculture ministry wasn’t replied to.
The Chinese government says more than a million pigs have been culled since last August, compared to an inventory of about 400 million pigs.
Live pig stocks have fallen by about 19 per cent in March from a year ago, while the number of productive sow herds have fallen by 21 per cent, the country’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.
Spot pork prices in China are up about 14 per cent since 1 August, when the disease was first reported.
Mr Suderman estimates that China’s nationwide pig feeding has dropped by more than 40 per cent, or about 300 million pigs in terms of annual production.
That includes swine that have been killed by the virus as well as panicked farmers that have liquidated their herds and are avoiding restocking for fear of the disease, he said.
A survey by Bloomberg of 11 analysts and traders estimated an average decline of 30 per cent.
In Shandong, one of China’s top breeding regions, official data show pig feeding was down 33 per cent in March compared to a year ago.
Based on reports from FCStone’s sources in China, including local feed suppliers, Mr Suderman estimates it’s down by more than 50 per cent in the region and is continuing to deteriorate.
The brokerage, which serves more than 20,000 customers in 130 countries, is receiving information from clients across China’s pork supply chain, Mr Suderman said.
There is no vaccine to prevent pigs from being infected and developing one could take years.
It may be five to seven years before the disease stops spreading and farms replenish lost stocks, he said. That could result in an annualised pork deficit of 16.2 million tonnes, said Suderman – an amount 1.3 times larger than what the US produced last year.
“That capacity isn’t available anywhere in the world unless China is willing to pay a high enough price to bid that meat out of the hands of consumers in the US as well as the rest of the world,” he said.
“I don’t think there’s enough refrigerated ocean freighters to fill that gap even if China is able to buy it.”
Bloomberg