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Business

China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracts in July as Covid flares up




Employees work on the production line of vehicle components during a government-organized media tour of a factory of German engineering group Voith, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Shanghai, China July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Aly Song

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  • China’s official manufacturing PMI below forecast for July
  • July official services PMI grows at a slower pace
  • COVID flare-up, cooling global demand, key real estate risks
  • Big stimulus seen as unlikely, the government omits mention of growth targets

BEIJING, July 31 (Reuters) – China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in July after rebounding from the previous month’s COVID-19 lockdowns, as new virus flare-ups and a darkening global outlook weighed on demand, a survey showed on Sunday.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in July from 50.2 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, below the 50-point mark that separates contraction from growth and the lowest in three months.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 50.4.

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“The level of economic prosperity in China has fallen, the basis of recovery still needs consolidation,” NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement on the NBS website.

Continued declines in energy-intensive industries, such as gasoline, coking coal and ferrous metals, contributed most to pulling down the manufacturing PMI in July, he said.

Sub-indices for production and order intake fell by 3 points and around 2 points respectively in July, while the sub-index for employment decreased by 0.1 point.

Weak demand has limited recovery, Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research at Jones Lang Lasalle Inc., said in a research note. “Growth in the third quarter may face greater challenges than expected as the recovery is slow and fragile,” he added.

The official July non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.8 from 54.7 in June. The official composite PMI, which includes manufacturing and services, fell to 52.5 from 54.1.

China’s economy barely grew in the second quarter amid widespread lockdowns, and top leaders recently signaled that its strict zero-COVID policy would remain a top priority. read more

Policymakers are prepared to miss the GDP growth target of “around 5.5%” for this year, state media reported after a high-level meeting of the ruling Communist Party. read more

Beijing’s decision to drop mention of the target has quelled speculation that the authorities will launch massive stimulus measures, as they have often done in previous downturns.

Capital Economics says policy restraint, along with the constant threat of more shutdowns and weak consumer confidence, is likely to make China’s economic recovery more protracted.

DESCENDING CREATION

After a recovery in June, the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy has faltered as the Covid-19 outbreak led to a tightening of activity in some cities, while the once-mighty real estate market lurches from crisis to crisis.

Chinese manufacturers continue to struggle with high commodity prices, which squeeze profit margins, as the export outlook remains clouded by fears of a global recession.

China’s southern megacity Shenzhen has vowed to “mobilize all resources” to curb a slow-spreading COVID outbreak, ordering strict implementation of testing and temperature checks, and lockdowns of COVID-affected buildings. read more

The port city of Tianjin, home to factories linked to Boeing ( BA.N ) and Volkswagen, and other areas tightened curbs this month to combat new outbreaks. read more

According to World Economics, the shutdown measures had some impact on 41% of Chinese companies in July, although the industry’s business confidence index rose significantly from 50.2 in June to 51.7 in July.

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Reporting from the Beijing Newsroom; Editing by William Mallard and Himani Sarkar

Our standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



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