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Business

China’s economy could be dragged down by a loss of confidence in the real estate sector




The loss of confidence in China’s property sector could lead to a contagion that would further drag down the Chinese economy, analysts warned.

The comments come after beleaguered developer China Evergrande Group failed to deliver a promised $300 billion restructuring plan over the weekend.

In filings with the Hong Kong stock exchange, Evergrande instead said it had “preliminary principles” in place for restructuring the offshore debt. It also said that one of its subsidiaries, Evergrande Group (Nanchang), had been ordered to pay an unnamed name. guarantor 7.3 billion yuan ($1[ads1].08 billion) for defaulting on its debt obligations.

“For the government, the priority is to break the negative feedback loop that has the high leverage ratio and the liquidity squeeze on the part of developers,” Shuang Ding, Standard Chartered’s chief economist for Greater China and North Asia, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”

“It leads to mortgage boycotts and very low appetite on the part of the home buyer, and that goes back to the developer because low sales affect liquidity.”

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

China is facing a mortgage repayment riot, with homeowners in 22 cities refusing to pay their loans on unfinished housing projects.

“So if this problem is not handled properly, it will have a profound impact on the economy, including the government’s balance sheet, the banks’ balance sheet as well, and households,” Ding said.

Ding said the problems in China’s real estate sector threaten a crucial foundation for a solid economy: market confidence.

Land sales, which make up a dominant part of the provincial government’s revenue, have fallen 30% in the past year.

The economist said Beijing should delineate the problems in the real estate sector and deal with them holistically, rather than with a piecemeal approach, with a view to avoiding mass insolvency.

Dan Wang, Hang Seng Bank’s chief economist in China, said the government can do this by making sure that companies in trouble have enough cash to complete the construction of half-started homes or complete a sold project.

China’s Politburo signaled last week that the country could miss its 5.5% GDP growth target for the year, while new data showed China’s factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July after rebounding from Covid-19 shutdowns in June .

While Beijing is taking the crisis in the real estate sector seriously, the Evergrande crisis is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon and may never be resolved at all, CreditSights co-head of Asia-Pacific research Sandra Chow said.

“I think it’s going to take a long time for investors to gain confidence not only in Evergrande, but in the real estate sector in China as a whole,” Chow said.

“China’s property market is in trouble, despite all the relief, and asset values ​​are still falling, especially in the lower tiers as well. So it’s going to be very difficult to rebuild confidence.”



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