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Home / Business / China January trading data beats forecasts, but probably due to seasonal factors by Reuters

China January trading data beats forecasts, but probably due to seasonal factors by Reuters



© Reuters. Containers and trucks are seen at a terminal in the Qingdao port in Shandong

BEIJING (Reuters) – China's exports unexpectedly returned to growth in January after a shock fell last month, while imports fell much less than expected, but Analysts said it was probably due to seasonal factors and expected renewed trade weakness in the future.

Global investors and China's major trading partners are watching closely to see how quickly the economy is cooling down, or if a range of support measures announced last year is beginning to take hold, some of the gloom is hanging over the world economy.

January imports rose 9.1

percent from the previous year, showed customs data on Thursday. The economists asked after Reuters had expected a 3.2 per cent decline after a 4.4 per cent decline in December.

Imports fell 1.5 percent from the previous year, much better than analysts' forecasts for 10 percent fall and narrowing from December to 7.6 percent. 19659004] It left the country with a trade surplus of $ 39.1 billion a month, better than the forecasts of $ 33.5 billion.

Analysts warn that data from China during the first two months of the year must be treated with caution due to business distortions caused by the long Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in mid-February in 2018, but started on February 4 in year.

"Clearly, the numbers surprised the upside market. But given the deceleration of global PMI and the weak Korean trade data, it may be too ripe to conclude that the trading prospect has improved only based on the January figure alone," Tommy Xie, economics in China at OCBC Bank in Singapore.

"I suspect the recovery may be a lot due to the Chinese New Year effect that this year's CNY is a bit earlier compared to last year. "

Economists had generally asserted that China would see weaker exports early this year. The factories have reported shrinking foreign orders for several months, and warehouses in America are packed with barriers with Chinese merchandise that retailers saved last year pending more. US tariffs

Globally, trade has also been aroused among increasing protectionism and loss of momentum in some major economies, especially in Europe.

Pressure on China will escalate rapidly if Beijing and Washington cannot reach an agreement soon to end its year-long trade war. The US will appreciate $ 200 billion in Chinese imports as of March 1, but President Donald Trump said this week he could let the deadline "push for a while" if a deal is shown close.

China's trade surplus with the United States reduced to $ 27.3 billion in January, from $ 29.87 billion in December, customs data showed on Thursday

US exports fell 2.4 percent in January from the year f ears, while imports from the US died 41.2 percent.

Net exports actually drew on China's growth of 8.6 percent last year, even after the unexpected jump in sales to the United States, Reuters showed estimates based on official data.

Factory surveys have also shown weaker domestic orders and wider economic weakness takes a toll on both business and consumer confidence. Retail sales of the Lunar New Year holiday rose 8.5 percent from the previous year, still solid, but the slowest pace since at least 2011.

China's economic growth slowed to 6.6 percent in 2018, balanced by rising borrowing costs and a clampdown on risky lending that starved less private capital companies and founded investment.


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