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Home / Business / Cheap money can deliver big fourth quarters for stocks, but it's just postponing the inevitable, warns strategist

Cheap money can deliver big fourth quarters for stocks, but it's just postponing the inevitable, warns strategist



Sounds like it will count jobs, growth and profits across the United States for the foreseeable future, if White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is right.

"I can say with certainty … we will have a strong economy through 2020 and beyond with a beef market," he told ABC News in an interview Sunday morning. "The Fed will lower prices. The ECB will participate in fiscal stimulus. China will participate in fiscal stimulus."

Yes, cheap money at home and abroad. Simple, right?

artificial aid markets are falling apart. If the Fed doesn't cut interest rates in September, the market crashes. & # 39;


Sven Henrich

Don't be fooled, folks, it's all "a giant con game," according to Northman Trader blog Sven Henrich. In our interview he warns that without the constant injection of central banks, a global recession would already be here, with a US recession not far behind.

“Trust must be maintained in all circumstances. This has been the case for 1

0 years and therefore all market declines that will put pressure on confidence must be averted, ”he wrote in a post this weekend.

Navarro's pink outlook exists only with the understanding that interest rates will fall, but in reality there is durability here.

"If the Fed does not cut interest rates in September, the markets plummet," Henrich wrote.

This is also not unique to the United States, he pointed out. If the European Central Bank does not cut interest rates – ouch. If China and Switzerland do not.


It's ultimately a losing game: short-term gain / long-term pain. And it is in the short term that drives the guidelines in the face of a growing market.

"Trump cannot afford a downturn in 2020 or worsen economic sentiment," Henrich said. “How will the Chinese benefit from this? This remains to be seen, but the longer there is no resolution, the higher the risk of a global recession. "

He says that while bears are waiting for inevitable market destruction, a massive relief rally could be unleashed as Trump burns down to resume 2020.

" See huge interest rate cuts and stimulus announcements and asset prices could once again rise to the upside in that least in the short term. That's the bullshit. Intervention, ”Henrich wrote.

The Market

The Dow

DJIA, + 1.00%

S&P

SPX, + 1.21%

and Nasdaq

COMP, + 1.46%

catches a nice lift while gold

GC.1, -1.10%

and silver

SI00, -1.00%

are both lower. Oil

CL.1, + 1.37%

is up and the dollar

DXY, + 0.10%

is flat.

Europe shares

SXXP, + 1.14%

joins all the fun while Asia markets

ADOW, + 1.08%

closed with winnings.

The chart

Does it look like the map of a country getting its debts?


Of course not. Wolf Richter from the blog Wolf Street points out that US gross national debt jumped by $ 363 billion over the two weeks since Trump signed the law suspending the debt ceiling. As you can see, we're looking at $ 22.39 trillion, up $ 1.01 trillion 12 months ago. “Look at this debt balloon during a financial downturn! Whoopee! ”Richter wrote.

The buzz

Greenland, really? It is true. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow confirmed that President Trump " wants to look into" buying Greenland, even though the semi-autonomous Denmark territory has said it is not for sale.

Apple

AAPL, + 2.47%

CEO Tim Cook warned Trump on Friday that tariffs could hurt his company, claiming that US tariffs on Chinese goods would benefit rival Samsung since it would not be subject to the same restrictions. "I thought he made a very compelling argument, so I think about it," Trump said.

Statistics

43% – So many approve of Trump – the lowest level of the year – according to the Wall Street Journal / NBC poll. A big drop in his assessment of the economy is a big factor as his response to the mass shooting.

The quote
Associated Press

Protesters gather in Hong Kong on Sunday, August 18, 2019. [19659039] Sarah Fairhurst, a partner in a Hong Kong financial consulting firm, on why she transferred around $ 25,500 dollars in Hong Kong King Dollar to British Pounds.

Economy

Important figures include housing data this week. We also hear from Fed Governor Jerome Powell on Friday when he talks in Jackson Hole, but that's why investors may be disappointed in what comes out of the central bank's retreat.

Lesson: U.S. to go into recession in two years, says one third of business economists

The tweet
Random reader

Iceland lost its first glacier against global warming, and it was a funeral.

Study shows that people with children are happier than people without children … when children finally move out

Former NFL star dies in motorcycle accident.

How family separations brought down a migrant mogul.

Look, $ 8.9 million Bugatti:


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