Boeing raises 20-year outlook for aircraft due to narrow-body demand

PARIS, June 18 (Reuters) – U.S. planemaker Boeing ( BA.N ) slightly raised its annual 20-year forecast for new jetliner deliveries, driven by strength in the narrow-body market fueled by demand from low-cost carriers.

Boeing expects airlines to buy 42,595 jets between now and 2042, up from 41[ads1],170 planes in the previous 20-year forecast last year.

The latest estimate – released on Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow – is still lower than the 43,610 new jets forecast as part of the 2021 market outlook, when Russian aircraft demand was taken into account.

Boeing expects narrow-body planes such as the 737 MAX or the A320neo family made by European rival Airbus ( AIR.PA ) to dominate aircraft deliveries, with 32,420 jets delivered at once through 2042.

That demand will be driven by low-cost carriers, which are slated to double the size of their current fleets, Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, said during a briefing with reporters ahead of the report’s release.

Deliveries from now until 2042 are also expected to include 7,440 widebody aircraft, 1,810 regional jets and 925 freighters. About half of new jet deliveries will replace older models, while the other half will add to airlines’ fleets, Boeing predicts.

“The end of the recovery has largely played out as we’ve expected, with a few different nuances and dynamics,” such as a reduction in demand for regional jets compared to last year as interest in narrow-body aircraft grows, Hulst said.

Boeing expects the global aircraft fleet to nearly double over the next 20 years, from about 24,500 jets in 2022 to 48,600 by 2042. Last year’s outlook predicted a global fleet of 43,470 aircraft in 2041.

The company also raised its forecast for passenger traffic across the industry slightly from 3.8% to 4%. And while the air cargo market is taking “a bit of a breather”, the estimated 3% annual growth in trade over the next 20 years will provide a tailwind for future demand, Hulst said.

“I think we’ll again see how resilient airfreight demand is because it’s consistently around 3.5% to 4% growth,” he said.

Although Chinese air traffic remained depressed in 2022, Hulst said Boeing remains “very bullish” on China, which will account for 20% of the market, with the rest of Asia accounting for another 22% of demand.

Airbus, which published its own market forecast on Wednesday, also raised its delivery forecasts, estimating that 40,850 new jets will be delivered to customers through 2042.

Reporting by Valerie Insinna; editing by Jonathan Oatis

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