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Business

Bitcoin Risks Worst August Since 2015 As Hodlers Prepare For ‘September Bear’




BItcoin (BTC) is on track to see its worst August performance since the 2015 bear market – and next month could be even worse.

Data from the chain analysis resource Coinglass shows that BTC/USD has not had such a bad August in seven years.

September means an average 5.9% BTC price loss

After two major BTC price falls in recent weeks, Bitcoin hodlers are understandably scared – but historically, September has performed even worse than August.

At $20,000, BTC/USD is down 14% this month, making this August the biggest loser since 2015, when the pair posted an 18.67% red monthly candle.

Subsequent years have proven that August can be a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance ̵[ads1]1; in 2017, for example, the largest cryptocurrency gained over 65% in a bullish record.

One month that no one has left anyone guessing when it comes to likely price direction, however, is September. Already known as a “red” month for Bitcoin, average losses since Coinglass registrations began in 2013 have been nearly 6%.

This time, macro instability is combined with a tradition of delivering gloomy forecasts from analysts.

“The stock market in general is not looking good right now, so this drop in $BTC is a reflection of that,” trader Josh Rager in summary when Bitcoin threatened support at $20,000.

“September in general is historically not a good month. Possibly a dip here that ends up being a buyer’s opportunity for the following months. I’d be a long-term spot buyer below $20k.”

Rager continued a debate about the likelihood that bitcoins from Mt. Gox rehabilitation process was sold in droves by creditors who were due to receive them after an eight-year wait. Like Cointelegraph reportedmany believe that such an event will not happen, with fears to the contrary unfounded.

BTC/USD monthly return chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Monthly Chart “Looks Very Ugly”

As for the monthly close, nervous commentators focused on whether Bitcoin could avoid a monthly candle ending below the $20,000 mark.

Related: Why September looks set to be a potentially ugly month for the Bitcoin price

If it failed to do so, BTC/USD would rival June in terms of lows absent from the chart since late 2020.

Even worse, such an event could trigger a snowball selloff, a concerned Galaxy Trading Twitter follower warned over the weekend.

“On a monthly TF, things look very ugly,” it wrote on the day.

“If the monthly candle closes below 20k in 3 days, this could trigger a big selloff to at least 14k where the next big support is located. Reason being close below 19900 means bearish engulfing candle which in a big TF is really bad.”

A move significantly below $20,000 would break a pivot zone in place since the first move above this level in 2020, as highlighted by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics.

“Bitcoin appears poised for a deeper retest of the key pivot area identified using the December 2017 monthly wick & close. This series served as perfect resistance in 2019, served as a launching pad in 2020, and has attempted to serve as support in 2022,” he explained about the monthly chart.

BTC/USD 1-month candlestick chart (screenshot). Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trade involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.