Bitcoin Risks Worst August Since 2015 As Hodlers Prepare For ‘September Bear’

BItcoin (BTC) is on track to see its worst August performance since the 2015 bear market – and next month could be even worse.

Data from the chain analysis resource Coinglass shows that BTC/USD has not had such a bad August in seven years.

September means an average 5.9% BTC price loss

After two major BTC price falls in recent weeks, Bitcoin hodlers are understandably scared – but historically, September has performed even worse than August.

At $20,000, BTC/USD is down 14% this month, making this August the biggest loser since 2015, when the pair posted an 18.67% red monthly candle.

Subsequent years have proven that August can be a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance ̵[ads1]1; in 2017, for example, the largest cryptocurrency gained over 65% in a bullish record.

One month that no one has left anyone guessing when it comes to likely price direction, however, is September. Already known as a “red” month for Bitcoin, average losses since Coinglass registrations began in 2013 have been nearly 6%.

This time, macro instability is combined with a tradition of delivering gloomy forecasts from analysts.

“The stock market in general is not looking good right now, so this drop in $BTC is a reflection of that,” trader Josh Rager in summary when Bitcoin threatened support at $20,000.

“September in general is historically not a good month. Possibly a dip here that ends up being a buyer’s opportunity for the following months. I’d be a long-term spot buyer below $20k.”

Rager continued a debate about the likelihood that bitcoins from Mt. Gox rehabilitation process was sold in droves by creditors who were due to receive them after an eight-year wait. Like Cointelegraph reportedmany believe that such an event will not happen, with fears to the contrary unfounded.

BTC/USD monthly return chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Monthly Chart “Looks Very Ugly”

As for the monthly close, nervous commentators focused on whether Bitcoin could avoid a monthly candle ending below the $20,000 mark.

Related: Why September looks set to be a potentially ugly month for the Bitcoin price

If it failed to do so, BTC/USD would rival June in terms of lows absent from the chart since late 2020.

Even worse, such an event could trigger a snowball selloff, a concerned Galaxy Trading Twitter follower warned over the weekend.

“On a monthly TF, things look very ugly,” it wrote on the day.

“If the monthly candle closes below 20k in 3 days, this could trigger a big selloff to at least 14k where the next big support is located. Reason being close below 19900 means bearish engulfing candle which in a big TF is really bad.”

A move significantly below $20,000 would break a pivot zone in place since the first move above this level in 2020, as highlighted by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics.

“Bitcoin appears poised for a deeper retest of the key pivot area identified using the December 2017 monthly wick & close. This series served as perfect resistance in 2019, served as a launching pad in 2020, and has attempted to serve as support in 2022,” he explained about the monthly chart.

BTC/USD 1-month candlestick chart (screenshot). Source: Caleb Franzen/Twitter

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