Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “cycle bottom” this year where it may fall above 50% from today’s level, research claims.
In a Twitter thread on June 1, Venturefounder, a contributor to the chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said predicted 2022 as Bitcoins year to “capitulate.”
Bitcoin now has “best 3-year ROI ever”
Based on historical patterns involving Bitcoin’s halving cycles, this year should be the bearish black sheep of the current four-year cycle, Venturefounder wrote.
Just like 201[ads1]8 and its bear market, BTC / USD should find a macro floor at some point in 2022, and if one calculates past falls from all-time highs, this could be anywhere between $ 14,000 and $ 21,000.
“670 days to the next Bitcoin halving, we are in time for BTC performance compared to previous cycles,” explained a tweet:
“Over the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate over the next 6 months and reach the bottom of the cycle ($ 14-21k), then cut around $ 28-40k for most of 2023 and be at ~ $ 40k again by next. halving. “
Such a prognosis, even if it is not music to the ears of bulls, such a prognosis would not be without precedent. After reaching $ 3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $ 13,800 seven months later before turning downhill again to the bottom at the lowest level of $ 3,600 in March 2020.
Even the local high in 2019 was not enough to beat the record currently set in December 2017 – $ 20,000.
This level can again be a function of the spot price chart, Venturefounder believes. Those who are willing to ride the wave and invest – even now – will still be on the right side of history.
“In other words, buying Bitcoin from this point on for the next 6-12 months is as good as it gets. Probably the best 3-year% ROI ever,” he added:
“We may not be at the bottom of the cycle, but we are within reach of the BTC cycle bottoms. This is the best thing you can do when deciding the market cycles.”
Bottom forecasts keep coming
Others, meanwhile, have already estimated the probable bottom area at $ 14,000 or so.
Related: “Mega bullish signal” or “real crash?” 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
That price will represent a fall of around 80% from the current $ 69,000 all-time high, corresponding to the previous cycle’s lowest percentage.
Current levels around $ 31,000 are relatively modest as a downturn, according to data from chain analysis firm Glassnode.
Last month, while analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential target of $ 15,500 when BTC / USD falls below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may have trouble driving the market so far down. MicroStrategy, which owns the largest BTC corporate cash register, has promised to buy into any cascade against the $ 20,000 mark.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, has also confirmed that he would be interested in BTC for $ 20,000.
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