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Bitcoin is 10 years old. But it won't get common until it's regulated




The digital currency has made many steps towards legitimacy since it was first launched, but it will not be an ordinary investment without mention of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC has not yet given the green light to some bitcoin projects. The agency has already rejected bitcoin ETF plans from Direxion, ProShares and Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the twins who became known for their legal battle with Mark Zuckerberg over the origins of Facebook's idea.

Last week, Bitwise Asset Management filed with the SEC for a listed fund that will track the bitcoins performance. Another company, the Wilshire Phoenix Funds, filed to sell shares in a fund that would own a mix of bitcoin, short-term government bonds and US dollars.

A decision on another proposed bitcoin ETF from the investment firm VanEck has been delayed. Because the shutdown forces the SEC to run with limited staff, this problem is not likely to be resolved until the government reopens.

SEC Holdings did not respond to a request for comment.

Matt Hougan, global research director for Bitwise Asset Management, said he believes the SEC is only cautious and will not rush to give the thumbs up to ETFs for an asset class that is still evolving.

He noted the SEC took a similar cautious access to gold ETFs several years ago before approving many of them. Winklevoss twins said in an interview this week that they agree with the SEC's cautious approach and will wait for years to endorse their ETF.

Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin give much reason for caution.

Although the price of a single bitcoin (XBT) was once worth almost $ 20,000 in December 201[ads1]7, the value has fallen more than 80% since then to around $ 3,650. The currency is often compared unfavorably to the biggest economic panic in history.

"Bitcoin is a speculative asset that is still in its infancy," said John Ryding, economist and adviser at Moeda, who uses blockchain technology to help small businesses get loans. "It may take some time for the market to shake off excess. The good news is that bitcoin has been beaten, but it's still in the game."

Bitcoin optimists like Hougan think the worst is over. And there are signs of common acceptance.

In 2017, bitcoin futures on both the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the giant Fidelity Fund also established a trading platform for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies late last year.

Listed bitcoin bear Jeff Gundlach from DoubleLine Capital also sounds positive. He recently told investors he believes the bitcoin prices could rally later this year and return to about $ 5,000. It's not close to the currency's high, but it's still about a 35% gain from today's level. Stable trading can convince the SEC that time is right to change the tune.

Others are not so sure that bitcoin is on the rebound.

"We haven't seen the bottom in bitcoin," wrote Marin Katusa, head of Katusa Research in a recent report. "The Dot-com bubble in the late 90s played out exactly the same. Hundreds of companies cleared the swinging wave of investor's feelings in order to make money from the hysteria. Hysteria can only support valuations for so long and ultimately take basic over. "

Hysteria often gives the opportunity to fear too. The dramatic decline may have scared off some investors forever.

  Investors go to gold when stocks are whipped around

Hougan admitted it must be a big shakeout in the cryptocurrency market for bitcoin to rebound. There are just too many digital coins out there, and bitcoin still has the dominant market share.

"Most crypto course values ​​are rubbish and will be thrown into the trash can in history," Hougan said. "The sooner the better."



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