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Bitcoin Fails To Convince Bottom Is In With $12K ‘Still Likely’

Bitcoin (BTC) may be circling its highest levels in months, but few are convinced that the bull market is back.

Ahead of a key weekly finish, BTC/USD remains near $21,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show, with analysts nervous that the good times are coming to an end all too soon.

Bitcoin to see new ‘depression’ before bull run resumes

Bitcoin divides opinion after its week of rapid gains. Warnings of a potential pullback abound, while others are already envious of bears in advance.

“Now bears will be caught in the vicious cycle of asking for the pullback to go lower, not realizing that the tide has changed for a while and we̵[ads1]7;re going higher,” Chris Burniske, former head of crypto at ARK Invest, in summary.

Even more optimistic assessments like Burniske’s, however, do not see the upside continuing unabated in a definitive end to Bitcoin’s latest bear market.

Uploading the classic “Wall Street Cheat Sheet” graphic over the weekend, popular commentator Lemon predicted that BTC/USD would still fall further.

“Sorry, I have to be true to my thoughts, I think we’re here,” he told Twitter followers point to Bitcoin sentiment – and price – heading towards macro lows.

“Wall Street Cheat Sheet” Annotated Chart. Source: Lemon/Twitter

Such a theory ties in with the more dismissive reactions to the recent BTC price rally, such as those of fellow Crypto commentator Il Capo, who in recent days described it as “one of the biggest bull traps I’ve ever seen.”

“Despite the latest rebuttal, the bearish scenario has not been invalidated,” he wrote in part of a follow-up Twitter thread on January 14:

“If you’ve made a profit during these days, congratulations, but remember, it’s not a bad time to protect that profit.”

He concluded that a macro low of $12,000 on BTC/USD was “still likely.”

BTC/USD Annotated Chart. Source: Il Capo from Crypto/ Twitter

Funding rates scared the mood

As for data, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, warned that the BTC price correction could come sooner rather than later.

Related: Bitcoin Gained 300% in Year Ahead of Last Halving — Is 2023 Different?

Funding rates on derivatives platforms, he wrote in a January 14 blog post, reached unsustainable levels.

“Bitcoin funding rates hit 14-month high,” he noted.

With positive prices, those longing for BTC are paying to do so, indicating a popular belief that prices will continue to rise. This in turn can cause major upheaval if the price reacts contrary to consensus, and cause a cascade of liquidations if support is broken.

“It is clear that traders are betting on higher prices. However, an analysis of the Funding Rate chart suggests that may not be the case, Maartunn concluded.

“In the previous occasions where funding rates were as high as today, Bitcoin had a pullback.”

Bitcoin Funding Rates Annotated Chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.