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Biden administration overstated second-quarter job growth by 1 million: Philadelphia Fed




The Biden administration overstated the number of jobs created in the United States during the second quarter by more than 1 million, according to a report issued by the Philadelphia Fed.

The Philadelphia Fed report found that only 10,500 net new jobs were created between March and June.

This finding stands in stark contrast to numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimated that 1.12 million new jobs were added between March and June 2022.

Economists at the regional central bank in Philadelphia published their own report last week that pulls in data from unemployment benefits payments.

The Philadelphia Fed said its estimates “include more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to expand the sample data from the BLS̵[ads1]7;s” reports that are “issued monthly on a seasonal basis.”

Biden administration overstated second-quarter job growth by 1 million: Philadelphia Fed
The number of jobs created in the second quarter of 2022 may have been overstated by the Biden administration, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
Getty Images

The regional central bank said its “revised estimates” are issued “five months later with a more complete picture” than that offered by the BLS’s “current employment survey” (CES).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were created during the second quarter of this year, but the Philadelphia Fed said the number is actually 10,500.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were created during the second quarter of this year, but the Philadelphia Fed said the number is actually 10,500.
Getty Images

One expert told The Post that the stark contrast in numbers can be explained by “the use of different methods to collect and analyze the data.”

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects its data through surveys of employers and households, while the Philadelphia Fed relies on data from unemployment insurance payments,” Mina Tadrus, managing director of Tadrus Capital, told The Post.

“It is also possible that there are variations in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations when determining what counts as a new job.”

Tadrus told The Post that “the significant difference in their findings highlights the need for caution when interpreting and using financial data to inform decision-making.”

Economists have said the Federal Reserve’s string of sharp interest rate hikes was largely based on the BLS’s job growth figures, complicating the central bank’s efforts to bring simmering inflation under control.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration has “lied to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda.”

“A million jobs wrong,” Scott tweeted last Friday.

The senator demands to meet the head of the BLS.

The Philadelphia Fed said it obtained data from unemployment insurance statistics.
The Philadelphia Fed said it obtained data from unemployment insurance statistics.
AP

The CES surveys about 131,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 670,000 jobs across the United States, according to the BLS website.

But the QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” since it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” conducted five months after the current quarter, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

“Our early reference process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process, as we do not have access to all the data that the BLS uses,” the Philadelphia Fed said in describing the method.

“Therefore, we accept BLS’s benchmarked CES estimates as the base employment level for each state.”

“When QCEW data are released for periods beyond the latest benchmarked CES estimates, we produce our early benchmark estimates,” the Philadelphia Fed added.



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