Asian markets mixed as investors digested private surveys of economic activity

International investment firms have changed their GDP forecasts for China almost every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January.

The US investment bank most recently cut its July China GDP forecast to 5%, down from 5.5% previously. That came alongside cuts this month from Citi and Morgan Stanley to 5%.

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-Evelyn Cheng

Japan’s business activity expanded for a seventh straight month, according to flash estimates from au Jibun bank.

The country’s composite purchasing managers’ index was 52.1 for July, unchanged from the previous month.

The services PMI fell slightly to 53.9 from 54 in June, while manufacturing activity remained in contractionary territory, with the PMI falling to 49.4 from 49.8.

– Lim Hui Jie

Business activity in Australia’s private sector fell for the first time since March, mainly due to a decline in services activity.

According to flash estimates from Juno Bank, the composite PMI fell to 48.3, down from 50.1 in June.

Services PMI went below the 50 unchanged mark to 48, down from 50.1 in June. In contrast, manufacturing activity showed a softer decline of 49.6 compared to 48.2 in June.

A PMI above 50 represents an expansion in the sector, while a PMI reading below 50 represents a contraction.

– Lim Hui Jie

New Zealand’s trade surplus narrowed to just 9 million New Zealand dollars ($5.43 million) in June, down from a revised figure of NZ$52 million the previous month.

Year-on-year, merchandise exports rose 1.3% to $6.31 billion in June, while imports fell 14% to $6.3 billion.

The country’s statistics department said the increase in exports was mainly due to an increase in dairy products, while a drop in petroleum products contributed mainly to the drop in imports.

– Lim Hui Jie

Bank of America believes that Europe’s major oil stocks “are near bottom”, pointing to the start of earnings season this week as a turning point.

The Wall Street bank named its “Big Oil top pick” ahead of earnings, expecting it to rise 30% over the next 12 months.

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– Ganesh Rao

Some Chinese equity sectors are seeing fundamental changes in their favor.

Profits are moving to industrials, consumer goods and staples – and away from materials and energy, according to HSBC.

Investors may also get some answers on macro policy in the coming days with a gathering of Chinese leaders, called the Politburo, due by the end of the month.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

-Evelyn Cheng

Business activity in Australia’s private sector fell for the first time since March, mainly due to a decline in services activity.

According to flash estimates from Juno Bank, the composite PMI fell to 48.3, down from 50.1 in June.

Services PMI went below the 50 unchanged mark to 48, down from 50.1 in June. In contrast, manufacturing activity showed a softer decline of 49.6 compared to 48.2 in June.

A PMI above 50 represents an expansion in the sector, while a PMI reading below 50 represents a contraction.

– Lim Hui Jie

A number of market signals suggest that the broad market rally could hit a snag later this year, said Credit Suisse’s global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite.

“Beyond a 3-month view, we would be much more cautious because: 1. Markets always make new lows into a recession (on average 11 months after it starts). The yield curve, Senior Loans Officer Survey, Money Supply is consistent with a recession,” Andrew Garthwaite, the firm’s global equity strategist, told clients on Friday.

“We also fear that wage growth will be stronger (suggesting that US core services inflation will rise, and that the rate cut discounted by the market in 2024 will not materialize unless there is a recession,” Garthwaite said.

—Sarah Min

Early returns for this earnings season are slightly below average, according to FactSet’s John Butters.

Here are some of the key stats from Butters’ note summarizing the first full week of the second quarter earnings season:

• Earnings per share surprise: 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive surprise, which is below the 5-year average of 77%.
• Earnings Verse Estimates: S&P 500 companies are beating EPS estimates by a combined 6.4%, which is below the 5-year average of 8.4%
• Looking ahead: The 2023 earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -9.0%, using FactSet’s “blended” method that combines realized and projected results. It will mark the biggest revenue decline reported by the index since the pandemic-hit 2nd quarter of 2020 (-31.6%).

-Jesse Pound

Come on Barbie, let’s go Mattel?

Analysts have been watching the toymaker’s stock closely in the run-up to this weekend’s highly anticipated premiere of the movie based on the iconic doll. It’s an important moment for Mattel, as the company tries to prove it has the ability to turn its intellectual property into blockbusters. And analysts are also looking at whether other companies, including cinemas and retailers, can ride the rising pink tide.

CNBC Pro subscribers can see some of the stocks Wall Street is watching for trends related to the film here.

– Alex Harring

Regional banks were higher in premarket trading on Friday, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ( KRE ) up more than 9% since Monday.

That puts KRE on pace for its best week in more than two years, as the ETF gained 9.78% for the week ending January 8, 2021.

Western Alliance, PacWest and Citizens Financial have advanced so far this week with gains of about 25%, 24% and 13% respectively. KRE must end the week more than 9.06% higher to reach the January 8 figure.

—Brian Evans, Gina Francolla