REUTERS / Marcos Brindicci
- Argentina is on the brink of the financial crisis after a shocking primary election saw President Mauricio Macri tape for Alberto Fernandez and his running mate, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirschner.
- The S&P Merval Index fell 48% on Monday, the second largest fall in a day for any stock market since 1950.
- The Argentine peso fell 1
- 19659003] Investors are concerned that Argentina will repay its debt.
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Argentina is teetering on the brink of a financial crisis after its current leader, President Mauricio Macri, was defeated by a left-leaning opponent in the country's primary election this weekend within a larger margin than expected.
The amazing loss sent Argentine markets on wheels. The S&P Merval Index fell 48% on Monday, the second largest fall in a day in any global stock market since 1950, according to Bloomberg . The Argentine peso also fell, losing 15% of its value against the US dollar on Monday and falling further to a new low on Tuesday.
Investors fear that if Macri does not win another term in October, the opposing team of left-leaning Alberto Fernández and his running mate – former leader Cristina Fernández de Kirchner – will regret the progress Macri has made to regain confidence to investors in Argentina and abroad.
The Conservative leader ran a campaign for national austerity, securing a record $ 56 billion payment from the International Monetary Fund in 2018. If Macri loses, Fernandez could try to renegotiate Argentina's debt with the IMF.
Argentina has billions of dollars in foreign currency debt over the next year, according to Bloomberg – $ 15.9 billion in debt payments matures in 2019, and another $ 18.6 billion in bond policies, loans and interest payments.
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In the primary over the weekend, Macri took home only 32% of the vote, while Fernandez won 47%. The 15-point lead was much larger than investors expected, Bloomberg reported.
Investors are now fleeing the country's assets in a hurry, prompting industry watchers to question whether the standard is on the horizon. The country has struggled with fiscal policy for years and defaulted before – once in 2001 and again in 2014, under then-President Fernandez de Kirchner.
On Monday, credit default swaps indicated that traders priced a 75% chance that Argentina would stop debt repayment over the next five years, up from the 49% chance on Friday, Bloomberg reported. Government bonds fell an average of 25%, with some prices falling to as low as 55 cents on the dollar, according to Bloomberg.
Even Argentina's 100-year bonds dropped to a new low. The 100-year Treasury bond was issued about $ 90 about two years ago at an interest rate of 7,125%, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Macri still hopes to turn around the result in October. At a press conference on Monday, he said his financial team is working to address voter concerns about the economy, but that market sales show that there is little confidence in his opposition, Bloomberg reports.