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Amazon, Constellation Brands, Alibaba and more



The front of the Amazon office is depicted in New York, May 1, 2019.

Carlo Allegri | Reuters

Here are the biggest conversations on Wall Street on Friday:

Piper Jaffray said Amazon shares could be worth $ 3,000 in two years

Piper Jaffray said the call was based on "conservative growth and valuation assumptions . " [19659006] "We believe that AMZN shares will reach $ 3000 right away between the middle of & nbsp; 21

and mid & # 39; or within 24-36 months. Our confidence in this 65% rate is based on what we believe are relatively conservative growth and valuation assumptions incorporated into our sum-of-the-part analysis (SOTP), in particular, we assume a multi-year deceleration in growth for all major categories of the Amazon business, along with very minimal Complex Group Multiple Adjustment, Despite the fact that Amazon grows significantly faster than the Both Cloud (AWS) and Ad Segments, we also award a discounted multiple versus retail segment e-commerce component, with a high degree of confidence that AMZN shares can reach this The level without major shares increases or other significant changes in the business, however, a potential AWS spin-off will undoubtedly contribute to highlighting the relatively low valuation of the other segments. $ 2,225. "

Read more about this call here.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Constellation Brands to "equilibrium" from "obese"

Morgan Stanley downgraded the company mainly due to an increase in the January low stock.

"The downgrade is mainly based on the price after a 36% jump in the shares from 9 January the low, and to a lesser extent an increasing risk profile with a potential beer demand decreases this summer as STZ cycles successfully innovation from last year. we believe that the market is now more appropriate to discount STZ's long-term corporate outlook growth prospects, since the DCF market-assumed + 5.5% LT forecast for STZ is close to our + 6% forecast. In the short term we also see limited potential for beer margin up in FY20 (we are mainly in line with STZ's flat beer margin view of +4 bps), and with subject weather and just OK results (based on scanner data and industry feedback) so far in fiscal first quarter, we see a slight modest risk for our 8% We have long been recommending this name, and the stock has increased 1.721% over the last decade, no doubt the best performer in our coverage, making a move to Equal-weight a big change for us, but we no longer see the potential for the elbow side (as described above) and / or convincing valuation, which has been the key drivers in our historical thesis. "

Bank of America upgraded Vale to" buy "from" neutral "

Bank of America said the" worst news "seems to be behind the mining company.

" We are upgrading Vale to buy from Neutral and Raise Our PO to US $ 15.50 (R $ 60) from $ 14.50 on a display is much of the worst news behind, with more catalysts going forward. We most likely arrived at a maximum of US $ 6.5B in estimated fines, pond improvements, lawsuits, and environmental cleanups, following discussions with mgmt at our Global Metals and Mining conference last week. While civil litigation may draw on, mgmt has been replaced, and recent headlines have been more bark than bite (more on p. 3) with no production impact, but the reputation afflicted by rail disturbances and Gongo Soco ponds. All upstream exit dams have been idle. We believe that Brazil's politicians are ultimately concerned with restoring lost tax revenues. JP Morgan said the Dow's risk / reward is "more evenly divided."

"Dow reached our $ 49 price target, and we are increasing our underweight to neutral rating. Our price target remains $ 49. We believe that the Dow's risk and rewards are now split more evenly. Optimism or pessimism over the economy can push stocks down slightly. in both directions, although we believe that further incremental cuts to consensus EBITDA estimates are likely, Dow's dividend yield is now 5.8%, which should act as a slowdown in share price declines – except under the conditions of a potential recession or significant lower oil price – both incidents will lead to big EBITDA reductions in our opinion, our estimated 10% Dow free cash flow generation in 2020, which is basically high within our universe, and likely to support stock prices. "

Piper Jaffray greatly downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight"

Piper Jaffray said it was primarily concerned about the dealer's e exposure to tariffs on goods from China.

"We downgrade shares of BIG to neutral and lower NPT to $ 31 (8x 2020 EPS). The downgrade is based on the risk of 1H estimates and ongoing tariff issues. We had previously recommended BIG based on our view of strong 1H upside (tax However, we now believe that Q1 was in use at best, and Q2 seems to have increased markdown activity, and we also notice that a number of traffic-challenged dealers have seen negative Q1 earnings prints. BIG 21% of sales from China, and a majority now get a 25% tariff We do not see the potential for remarkable offsets, and price increases can damage the demand with BIG's moderate income customers For valuation we move to 8x EPS – inline w / other traffic challenges dealers.

Stifel la Alibaba to the selection list

Stifel said that the last withdrawal on the stock is an opportunity to buy.

"Shares have gone down ~ 12% (vs. S & P 500 down ~ 1%) since the company reported F4Q: 19 earnings due to trade war issues, an Altaba sales event and concern over near-term investments in growth initiatives. The share is now trading at 13x F2021 EBITDA, and is even cheaper on revenues from the company's core market-based businesses (primarily Tmall and Taobao, 55% of F2019 revenues). This compares to other large / megacap US or global ecommerce and digital advertising customers who trade on average 12x on forward-two-year EBITDA, while Alibaba expects to maintain an organic growth rate of 30% in F2020, significantly above peer -group. While it is impossible to predict the timing of the dissolution of certain macro events, we believe that the latest withdrawal has created an opportunity to hold stocks with a long-term investment horizon. "


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