After closing the book in a scary October, it's how stocks tend to trade in November
October was a volatile and scary month as historical seasons trends projected it would shape up to be. So, what's November in store in the store for a frazzled Wall Street?
According to Jeff Hirsch's Stock Trader's Almanac, the first trading day in November tends to be the fifth weakest of all monthly trading days in the last two decades of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA, + 0.43%
Almanac says the Dow and S & P 500 Index
SPX, + 0.31[ads1]%
has been higher 12 of the last 21 years on the first trading day in November.
At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP, + 0.20%
had better performance than its benchmark participants in the first trading day in November, up 13 times for an average return of 0.31% during the first trading session in November (see diagram below):
In October, S & P 500 dropped 6.9% for the biggest monthly decline since September 2011, while Dow dropped 5.1% in its largest monthly percentage since January 2016. But the technological heavy Nasdaq was a very significant benchmark, dropped 9.2% in October for the biggest fall since November 2008.
However, while October tends to be a frenetic period, November marks the start of the best six months for Dow and S & P 500 and the best eight-month period for Nasdaq, according to the Almanac, quoting "fourth quarter cash flow from institutions" as one of the main reasons for overpricing. The bullish period also follows the trend of selling in May and goes away, which has been a winning tactic, even lasting November, with September and October extending to the ugliest months of stocks.
Hirsch says November has been the third best month for the Dow dating back to 1950, and Nasdaq, dating back to 1971. The month has been the second best for S & P 500 in the last 70 years, and the little capitalist Russell 2000 index
RUT, + 0.88%
since 1979.
But voters go to the polls on November 6th to mid-term congressional elections.
Read: Will mid-term elections sink the stock market? Here's what the story says
And the performances in the mid-quarter valleys are a bit different. Here's how the main goals have been done during such mid-term election periods since 1950.
Read: Opinion: Investors should look forward to a green wave after mid-term
Read also : Opinion: A conservative explains why Republicans deserve a shellacking in midterms