ADP Jobs Report October 2022

Private payrolls rose 239,000 in October, higher than forecast: ADP

Private wage growth remained strong in October while workers’ wages also rose, particularly in the leisure and hospitality industries, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP.

Companies added 239,000 jobs for the month, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 195,000 and better than the downgraded 192,000 in September. Wages increased by 7.7 per cent on an annual basis, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

Job gains were particularly strong in the key leisure and hospitality sector, which added 210,000 jobs while wage growth accelerated 11.2%. The industry, which includes hotels, restaurants, bars and related businesses, is seen as a bellwether as it took the brunt of Covid and remains below pre-pandemic levels.

All of the job growth came from service-related industries, which added 247,000 jobs, while goods-producing sectors lost 8,000 jobs, mainly due to the loss of 20,000 manufacturing positions. Trade, transport and utilities rose by 84,000.

“This is a very strong number given the maturity of the economic recovery, but the hiring was not broad-based,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Commodity producers, sensitive to interest rates, are pulling back, and job-changers are commanding smaller wage gains. While we see early signs of Fed-driven demand destruction, it’s only affecting certain sectors of the labor market.”

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in an attempt to cool inflation that is nearing its highest level in more than 40 years. A main target is the historically tight labor market, where vacancies outnumber available workers by a margin of almost 2 to 1.

While the headline ADP number was strong, the details looked weaker.

Along with the decline in construction jobs, information (-17,000), professional and business services (-14,000) and financial services (-10,000) also showed losses.

By business size, companies with between 50 and 249 employees had virtually all of the gains, adding 241,000.

The ADP report comes two days before the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That report is expected to show growth of 205,000, from September’s 263,000.

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