A recession will make it more difficult for Trump to be re-elected

The presidential election is more than a year away, but one topic that is on the rise at the top of the discussion list is economy. How will our financial health affect the choice of signs that point to a downturn?
President Trump does not seem concerned at this time. "The economy is phenomenal right now," he told a New Hampshire radio station, according to a Wall Street Journal report. "With a normalized interest rate, we're doing phenomenally. We had a couple of bad days. But we're going to have some really good days."
His opponents over the aisle probably won't be so bullish on the economy. Elizabeth Warren wrote a blog post about "the coming economic crash" last month, and many of the Democratic candidates have entire sections of their policies devoted to strengthening the economy, raising wages and supporting the shrinking middle class. And as trade negotiations continue, candidates will discuss the impact of new tariffs on
In addition to debates and political attitudes, Trump's reelection chances will also fight history books: Republicans are usually elected when the economy is booming, and Democrats are elected when the economy is in a low period.
The Washington Post has some historic data worth considering (or at least toughening up your memory bank for your next trivia night trip):
- Since the Civil War, only one president has won re-election with a recession that happened in the last two calendar years of his first term: William McKinley in 1900.
- Since then, all four presidents who lost for re-election that had such a recession: William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush.
- Over the same period, all 10 who have applied for reelection without such a recession have won: Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt (3x), Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
Historical trends do not guarantee that Trump will fight to be re-elected. But they indicate that a financial downturn will further warm the campaign discussions. As the economic outlook develops, both parties can chance to win the White House as well.