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A global "shock to markets" may trigger the next financial crisis, Roubini warns




The federal reserve is largely expected to strike a wise chord when it meets this week and paves the way for a July price reduction – the first of more than a decade – that nearly 40% of the economists in a Wall Street Journal survey are expects.

While a hawkish Fed no longer weaves large over this aging bull market, Nouriel Roubini, NYU's professor of economics and perhaps media's favorite permabear, now says the world has an even bigger problem on their hands.

In our the day is called Roubini is investigating "the growing risk of a recession" and the ghost of the crisis in an already fragile global economy.

& # 39; A strong enough shock could trigger a global recession, even if central banks respond quickly. & # 39;


Nouriel Roubini

Last year, he announced 1[ads1]0 potential disadvantages that could lead to a global downturn next year. A friendlier Fed, he says, removes one of them, but the others are still stuck in games and have emerged as more dangerous than before.

"US stock markets have remained creepy since our first comment," he wrote. "Risks have been added to the rise of recent debt, including in many emerging markets, the amount of foreign currency denominated loans." 19659002] Among the major risks, the tension between China and the United States deserves special attention, Roubini says especially if they result in China retaliating by closing the market to US multinational companies such as Apple

+ 1.12%

AAPL.

Read: Wilbur Ross lowers expectations of a trade deal coming down from G20 talks between Trump, Xi

"Under such a scenario, shocks to markets around the world will suffice a global crisis, no matter what the major central banks do, "Roubini warned. "And in view of the scale of private and public debt, another financial crisis is likely to follow."

Read also: Business terms are at their worst since the financial crisis in 2008, says Morgan Stanley [19659002] At this point, he says that central banks around the world are becoming increasingly limited, exposing illiquid financial markets to " flash crashes "and other disturbances, such as Trump's conflict with a country like Iran. "It can strengthen his domestic polls," he said. "But it can also trigger an oil shot."

Spiking oil prices and trade war, Roubini points out, is more than just a supply-side risk. They also threaten consumption growth – tariffs and higher fuel costs absorb disposable income. The result is that uncertainty builds, companies reduce capital expenditures and investments, and the major flushing begins.

No sign of shock to start the week, with markets around the world looking green over Monday's opening bell in the US.

Markets

The Dow

DJIA, + 0.28%

S & P

SPX, + 0.35%

and Nasdaq-100

COMP, + 0.85%

are all on the rise. After a volatile stretch last week, the oil is

CLN19, -0.65%

down while gold

GCQ19, -0.23%

is up and the dollar

DXY, -0.17%

is lower.

Europe shares

SXXP, -0.05%

is mostly mixed and that was the history of Asian markets

ADOW, [0.145%] [17659009] as well.

In crypto courses, the price of bitcoin is

BTCUSD, + 4.39%

BTCUSD, + 4.39%

has crossed the $ 9,000 threshold for the first time in more than a year.

The figure

] Donald Trump warned investors over the weekend that they would better vote for him, otherwise. "If anyone, but I take over in 2020 … there will be a Market Crash that hasn't been seen before!" He wrote. The premise is that the rally we have seen is solely due to its work in the White House.

But the Heisenberg Report blog used this narrative chart to show perspective on how, when Trump became president, the stock market was threefold from the 2009 nadir, and unemployment was already near historic downturns.


Buzz

He's not named, but Apple

AAPL, + 1.12%

chief Tim Cook seemed to aim for such as Silicon Valley tech giants Facebook

FB, + 3.17%

Twitter

TWTR, + 1.31%

and alphabetical

GOOG, + 1.00%

YouTube during his speech to Stanford University degree on Sunday. "If you've built a chaos factory, you can't avoid the chaos," he said. "For many, thinking good intentions seems to apologize for harmful outcomes."

Much of South America is in recovery mode after a massive blackout left millions of people without electricity in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay on Sunday due to an inexplicable fault in the country's interconnected mains.

Economy

Together with the upcoming FOMC meeting from Tuesday, data on new homes where it was built began in May, and existing housing sales are due later this week. On Monday we will look at the New York Fed Empire State production survey ahead of the open, followed by the June NAHB homebuilder survey. As for the Fed meeting, no political shift is expected.

Tweeten

Here comes O.J. Simpson … no, really:

Random reader

Tourists need to get out of the beaten path once in awhile.

Starbucks

SBUX, -0.71%

billion Howard Schultz drains the brakes at his 2020 White House race, citing back pain.

HBO's version of Chernobyl's only "scratches the surface."

This mower goes from zero to 100 m.p.h. in 6 seconds.

Potential future gay president says we probably have had a gay president.

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