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10th anniversary of the beef market comes



The government had just reported that more than 650,000 jobs were lost last month. Dow and S & P 500 were each down more than 50% from the October 2007 peaks.

And it looked like there was no end in sight of the verdict and the stumbling block on Wall Street and Main Street.

Flash ahead 10 years and it has been mostly blue skies for investors since then. Thanks to steady economic growth and increase in corporate earnings, Dow and S & P 500 have increased more than 300% since they hit the bottom on March 6, 2009.

But now that this bull market is approaching its 10th anniversary, some wonder how much longer the rally can last. Shares have risen so far in 201

9 after the fourth quarter last year.

It has led to new questions about whether the shares are too expensive.

S & P 500 had traded 18 times 2019 earnings estimates before shares crashed last fall. That more fell as low as 14 after the big sale. But it is now at 16 after the index started in 2019 with a 12% pop.

"What happened in this collection is that valuations have crept up," said Hugo Rogers, Deltec's main investment strategist. "Shares were sold last year, but now they are no longer cheap."

The earnings growth is expected to decline this year after a strong 2019. This is partly due to the fading effect of the corporate tax reductions. But economic weakness in Italy and Germany, concerns about Brexit and slowing growth in China and India are also cause for concern.

All this can damage revenue for large multinational companies in Dow and S & P 500 companies such as Apple AAPL ) Caterpillar ( CAT ) Coca-Cola ( KO ] and Procter & Gamble ( PG ) . The Federal Reserve has already signaled that it is unlikely to raise interest rates this year, the US economy – and corporate earnings – may begin to slow down due to saving from previous interest rate hikes. The Fed has increased its rates seven times over the past two years. a lot of debt in particular.

"The markets can be topped," says Randy Swan, CEO of Swan Global Investments. "The damage from Fed's interest rate increases could already be done."

Of course, it is fair to point out that beef markets are not as a carton of milk, they do not have an outlet Stocks can continue to climb as long as earnings and the economy grow.

But complacency can be put in as investors continue to ignore risk.

"To look after, it seems too obvious how and why it needed problems," wrote strategists at DWS. "Most setbacks and bear markets aren't that way – they tend to catch central banks, investors, and even economists on surprise. All this is a bit cautious."

2. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Last month, analysts on the US saw the work report for signs of damage from the partial government closure. But the growth in employment in January was surprisingly strong. The US economy added 304,000 jobs – the 100th straight month of gains.

Another solid report could juic markets, which ended February with a positive comment. The Dow increased by 3.7%. S & P 500 was completed by 3%, and Nasdaq ended with 3.4%.

Good economic news will add to the investor's optimism. They already feel good about the likelihood of a trade agreement between the United States and China, as well as the Fed's decision to stop interest rates.

3. The retail and garden-nots: The judgment is from last year's shopping trend: There is an increasing gap between the store's best and worst companies.

A flood of top traders reported unevenly, resulted in this earnings period. Some, including Walmart ( WMT ) TJX ( TJX ) and Best Buy ] ( BBY ) flourished. Men L Brands ( LB ) -owned Victoria's Secret, JCPenney ( JCP ) ] inc. ( GPS ) worn. Department Chains Macy's ( M ) and Nordstrom ( JWN ) price divisions. But these companies found strength through their discount stores. ( TGT ) Kohls ( KSS ) Kroger ( KR ) ] and Costco ( COST ) all reported income this week. Target has become a formidable competitor to Amazon ( AMZN ) and Walmart because of their range of trendy private label apparel and its sharp focus on trying to win over mothers and dads. Costco has also been successful because of its low prices for groceries and household basics, and through the popularity of its Kirkland Signature brand.

4. Coming next week:

Monday Salesforce ( CRM ) income
Tuesday ] Target, Kohl and Ross Stores ( ROST ) profit, US ISM non-production index
Wednesday Dollar Tree ( DLTR ) and Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF ) income, Fed Beige Book
Thursday Kroger, H & R Block ] HRB ) Costco earnings

Friday – US jobs report


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